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AIPROPX ReportNewsweek · 1h ago
NATO Ally Confronts Warning Shot From Israel as Trump Faces New Test
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. At a time when signs have emerged of growing dissonance between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fallout of an Israeli strike on a Syrian military site may extend to a broader geopolitical shift.
The affected site, Abu al-Duhur Air Base in Idlib province, had just hours earlier hosted a military delegation from Turkey, which reportedly sought to rehabilitate the facility as Ankara cultivates ties with the government that drove longtime leader Bashar al-Assad out of Damascus in December 2024.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry unsurprisingly issued strong condemnation of the attack, the latest in a series of rhetorical spats between two U.S. allies in the Middle East.
When Netanyahu's office justified the strike by accusing Syria of moving to violate a security understanding "by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo," the Turkish government dismissed "frivolous allegations" designed "to legitimize Israel's unlawful airstrikes targeting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
But Washington, too, followed suit with criticism of the Israeli operation, with Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressing deep concern over "an unnecessary escalation."
It's not the first time that the administration appears to have sided with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over Netanyahu. And with the U.S. leader having yet to endorse the Israeli premier ahead of crucial elections set to take place in October, that rift might prove consequential as they contend with domestic pressures pushing them in opposite directions .
Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former U.S. official at the State Department, National Security Council and Pentagon, said that "President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu are both in weak political positions at home—Trump continues to suffer from his lowest voter approval ratings in his time in office including his first term, and Netanyahu's standing and reputation remains severely damaged by the October 7 [2023 Hamas] attack and its aftermath."
"Netanyahu's primary policy and political objectives have centered on demonstrating that he can protect Israeli citizens once again, hence he has continued an aggressive military campaign on multiple fronts that appeals to members of his extreme right-wing coalition," Katulis told Newsweek .
"Trump, by contrast, faces a war-weary American public feeling the economic pain caused by Trump's war against Iran and unsteady foreign policy approach—so Trump seeks to deescalate, the opposite direction that Netanyahu is heading."
Trump credited Erdogan with having played a role in Assad's ouster just weeks before the U.S. leader's return to the White House and went on to align with Ankara's embrace of the new government in Damascus, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former Islamist militant chief. Trump twice met Sharaa last year, lifted some sanctions on Syria and began building a new regional partnership.
The White House's budding cooperation with Sharaa came despite repeated opposition from Netanyahu. The U.S. has criticized Israeli strikes in support of Druze militias clashing with Syrian security forces and tribal militias on several occasions, calling on Israel to refrain from actions that could undermine the new Syrian leadership's efforts to consolidate power and stabilize a nation rocked by nearly 13 years of civil war.
After the latest NATO summit in Ankara saw a reaffirmation of U.S.-Turkey ties, even as relations with allies in Europe soured, Trump again defied Netanyahu's protests when he declared that he would seek to lift restrictions on selling F-35 fighter jets to the NATO ally as a result of its previous acquisition of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.
At the same time, Trump's historic rapport with Netanyahu has survived many past rumors of collapse .
Even as Trump entered office in January 2025 with criticism of Netanyahu's war effort in Gaza and a pressure campaign to achieve a ceasefire by Inauguration Day, the administration has broadly aligned with Israel, most notably in twice launching direct action against Iran—first during the 12-Day War in June 2025 and then in a more concerted campaign ongoing since February 28 this year.
But indications of a divergence of interests between Netanyahu and Trump persist as the joint war on the Islamic Republic rages on nearly six months later with little indication of decisive victory . All the while, rising tensions between Erdogan and Netanyahu have only emboldened Trump's push for regional players to take matters into their own hands.
"President Trump's simultaneous praise of President Erdogan and alliance with Israel, despite the ongoing rivalry between Turkey and Israel, underscores how President Trump's approach to the Middle East is one that prioritizes each country's self-reliance, self-defense and resilient autonomy," Katulis said. "Trump's fundamental foreign policy message is: Take care of your own affairs so I can fulfil my 'America First' agenda to reduce U.S. security burdens."
But while "this incentivizes actors in the region like Israel and Turkey to go their own way and test the limits of their power and influence," he warned that "it also increases the chances of confrontations that turn into conflagrations."
Already, regional players appear to be accelerating efforts to explore new networks of deterrence as questions arise over the extent of U.S. security commitments.
Among the most notable recent developments on this front has been the mutual defense agreement signed between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, known as the "Mecca Pact." The formalization of the growing ties among these three Sunni Muslim powers comes as Iran...
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