RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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For the last several summers I’ve put out extensive 2,500+ word previews for every team in Washington’s conference using my team talent formula. I ran out of time to do that this summer so instead I’m breaking it up into three articles of about that size breaking up the rankings into groups of six. I’m sure that’s a more preferable approach to most out there but my apologies to the true sickos that actually enjoyed over 45,000 words of conference preview content in the middle of their summer. You are my spirit animals.
My rankings are intended to represent the quality of a team’s roster by looking at the numerical inputs of a player’s recruiting ranking, their playing time relative to their years in college, and their on-field performance. I then take those scores and assign credit for each based on position and position ranking on the team. For instance the #1 QB gets 150% of his score assigned towards the final total while the #3 RB gets 25%. That means my totals try to account for depth, particularly at positions that are more prone to heavy rotation. But if you just want to see some stats about the starters, I include the 3 components assigned just to the players that Phil Steele projects as starters for every team. If there’s a major difference between those rankings and the overall ranking then it likely is due to the quality of the depth.
Let’s get on with it.
18. Purdue Boilermakers- 2,025 (#18 offense, #15 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.862 (7th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 573 (17th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 61.1 (18th)
Purdue has been the clear worst team in the conference over the past two seasons and they are right back at the bottom of the team talent rankings this year so it seems like not much has changed. But the gap has likely closed between Purdue and the rest of the bottom. The Boilermakers actually have some pedigree on their roster with a mindset to the portal that has prioritized taking raw recruiting talent over proven production. It’s the opposite approach of their rival Indiana who just won the national title but hey, who am I to criticize?
The offense returns starting QB Ryan Browne so at least there’s continuity but he really struggled last year and it’s not clear the talent around him improved enough to expect much better results. The running back room is improved with a couple guys I like in Texas transfer Jerrick Gibson and Minnesota transfer Fame Ijeboi. But they have the worst offensive line in the conference with 0 players with a career PFF grade of 61+ and are relying on several starters who weren’t very good in their previous stops.
The defense has a chance to improve thanks to a surprisingly sturdy defensive line. The Boilermakers don’t have any of my top 20 ranked DL players but have four between 21 and 50 which should raise the floor for their interior front. No other defensive position ranks inside the top 12 but also nowhere are they in the bottom 2 which would be a huge improvement if it actually plays out that way.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Defensive Line (6th)
Lowest Ranked Position Group : Offensive Line (18th)
Top 5 Players : 1. S Jaden Mangham (76), 2. WR Xavier Townsend (75), 3. RB Jerrick Gibson (74), 4. LT Joey Tanona (73), 5. QB Ryan Browne (69)
17. Illinois Fighting Illini- 2,042 (#14 offense, #18 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.849 (13th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 864 (9th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 6 5.3 (13th)
This would certainly be a major step back for Illinois if they were to be 17th in the conference this year given they are coming off a 19-7 record over the past two seasons. The coaching infrastructure under Bret Bielema when combined with what looks like a pretty manageable schedule means I expect wins to still be plentiful this season but the roster looks to be a clear step back from last season particularly on defense.
There is pretty good talent at the skill positions. QB Katin Houser comes in from East Carolina where he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt last season and projects as a top half of the conference starter. Jumbo back Kaden Feagin rushed for 500+ yards last year but has moved to tight end to help Illinois keep their most talented players on the field. He ranks as the #2 TE in the conference but my system doesn’t know his stats were put up at a different position. The reason he moved is RB Ca’Lil Valentine returns after picking up 600+ yards on 4.6 YPC last season. There was a lot of turnover though on the offensive line and so we’ll see if they can rebuild that group on the fly with 2 new transfers in plus a 3-star true freshman slotted to start.
The Illinois defense also was decimated in the offseason. Only 4 members of Illinois’ projected defensive 2-deep finished in the top 15 in defensive snaps played for them last year. It isn’t as if Illinois instead added a bunch of veteran transfers to make up for it. The only projected defensive starters added through the portal are Penn DL Carter Janki and Jacksonville State DL Darrell Prater who both are coming up from lower levels where they weren’t superstars to start. That means Illinois is relying on internal development for a bunch of 3-star guys without much experience. It’s an approach that can work but is reliant on a quality coaching staff. New Illinois DC Bobby Hauck (former Montana HC) has his work cut out for him.
Highest Ranked Position Group: Tight End (2nd)
Lowest Ranked Position Group : Linebacker (18th)
Top 5 Players : 1. QB Katin Houser (90), 2. TE Kaden Feagin (87), 3. RB Ca’Lil Valentine (79), 4. WR Collin Dixon (70), 5. CB Matthew Bailey (70)
16. Iowa Hawkeyes- 2,042 (#12 offense, #17 defense)
Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.838 (16th)
Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 461 (18th)
Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Star...
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