RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesFlorida State football enters the 2026 season searching for a breakthrough after consecutive disappointing campaigns, but On3’s JD PicKell is not projecting the Seminoles to make the jump back to bowl eligibility.
PicKell predicted FSU will finish 5-7 during his preseason breakdown of Mike Norvell’s team, matching the Seminoles’ record from a year ago. FSU finished 5-7 overall and 2-6 in ACC play in 2025.
The prediction has Florida State getting off to a promising start. PicKell picked the Seminoles to beat the New Mexico State Aggies in the Aug. 29 opener and the SMU Mustangs on Labor Day before suffering their first loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Sept. 19 in their first road game of the season. He then projected consecutive victories over Central Arkansas and Virginia, which would put FSU at 4-1 through its first five games.
From there, PicKell expects the schedule to take its toll.
He picked Florida State to lose consecutive road games against the Louisville and Miami Hurricanes before falling to the Clemson Tigers at Doak Campbell Stadium on Oct. 31. A road victory over the Boston College Eagles would briefly stop the slide, but PicKell has the Seminoles dropping their final three contests against the Pitt Panthers, NC State Wolfpack, and Florida Gators .
That would leave FSU losing six of its final seven games and finishing below .500 for a third consecutive season. A 5-7 finish would represent another frustrating result for a program trying to regain its footing under Norvell. Florida State has gone 7-17 over the past two seasons, including a 2-10 campaign in 2024 and last year’s 5-7 finish.
PicKell’s projection does leave room for an encouraging opening month, but his outlook ultimately reflects the difficulty of the back half of Florida State’s schedule. If the Seminoles want to outperform his prediction, they will need to turn some of those matchups against ACC contenders and rivals into wins rather than allowing another promising start to unravel.
This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: On3 analyst delivers bleak outlook for Florida State football in 2026
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