RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesTo discuss the air defense shortage in Ukraine and the impact on its ability to defend itself from Russia, Amna Nawaz spoke with retired Army Col. Robert Hamilton. He's now president of the Delphi Global Research Center, a military consulting firm. Amna Nawaz: Well, for more on the missile shortage in Ukraine and how it impacts the country's ability to defend itself, we're joined by retired Army Colonel Robert Hamilton. He's now president of the Delphi Global Research Center. That's a military consulting firm. Colonel, welcome. Thanks for being here. Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.), Delphi Global Research Center: Thanks for having me on. Good to be with you. Amna Nawaz: So we have heard President Zelenskyy say that Ukraine cannot properly defend itself. It doesn't have enough of those Patriot defense missiles. The U.S. has had to divert its own supplies because of the ongoing war in Iran. The big question we hear again and again is, why can't the European allies step in. What do you say to that? Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): Well, I guess there's two reasons. First of all, the Patriot really is the only system made in large numbers that has the capability to knock down Russian ballistic missiles effectively at high rates. And then, secondly, our European partners and allies, some of them have the Patriot, but they have even fewer remaining than the U.S. does because they have given so many to Ukraine in the early years of the war. Amna Nawaz: And when it comes to production models, what are we looking at there? Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): So, right now, the U.S. produces about 600 Patriot missiles a year. The U.S. is one of three countries that produces the Patriot. We have licensed it to Germany and Japan. They produce far less than we do. There is a $58 billion contract to scale up Patriot production to 2,000 a year, but the first missiles off that contract don't arrive until early 2029, and the contract is not fulfilled until 2032. So this is a six-or-seven-year effort just to get from 600 a year to 2,000 a year. Amna Nawaz: So, when it comes to what we have heard from President Zelenskyy after meetings with European leaders, we saw his tweet today about the NATO secretary-general, Mark Rutte. And he said in that tweet: "We coordinated our efforts regarding countries that have the necessary missiles and the capacity to help." What is he talking about there, and how much of a difference can that make for Ukraine? Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): Well, there is a program called the PURL, the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, that allows our NATO allies and partners to buy things from the U.S. on Ukraine's behalf and then give them to Ukraine. Patriots, I think we're arriving through that process. The problem, as you noted at the outset, is that the U.S. has expended so many Patriot missiles in the Gulf War, in the war against Iran. The numbers I'm seeing are from about 2,330 before the war. We're down to about 800 right now. So we have expended almost two-thirds of our Patriots. We don't have them to give because we need them. The U.S. has got to preserve them for other theaters, for the Middle East, for the Indo-Pacific, as well as for Europe, and our European -- and so therefore we have been even been diverting missiles that our European partners and allies had bought and paid for to restock U.S. supplies. So it's a supply chain issue more than anything at this point. Amna Nawaz: When it comes to how those Patriots are being used, I mean, from our reporting and others, we have heard, in Ukraine, there's pretty much a one-to-one deployment when it comes to the Patriot defensive missiles. When you talk about the use of those same missiles by the U.S. and by Gulf allies, are they as judicious when it comes to the deployment of those defensive missiles? Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): Well, the only real good evidence we have for this is the remarks of Ukrainian specialists who actually deployed to help our partners and allies in the Gulf shoot down Iranian missiles at the beginning of the Iran war. And the short answer is, it doesn't look like they are being as judicious. Ukraine only had -- has only been given about 600 missiles total, 600 Patriots for 4.5 years of war. So the Ukrainians have gotten very effective at one missile knocking down one missile. What we're hearing from Ukrainian specialists who've come back from the Gulf is that some of our allies and partners, because they had larger stocks and because they had less experience, were firing four to eight Patriot interceptors at a single Iranian ballistic missile. Amna Nawaz: For all the focus on the Patriot defensive system, are there other defensive systems, drone production or the like, that the U.S. or allies could also be ramping up that would step in to help Ukraine at this time? Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): So there are a couple of initiatives under way that won't produce interceptor missiles immediately, but over time, months and years, they will help fill this Patriot gap. There's a joint U.S.-Ukrainian effort going on to essentially retrofit or upgrade the old S-300 missiles or a newer variant of the S-300 and give it better capabilities. And so that should come online near the end of this year. But, again, we're talking 100 or a couple of hundred a year that could be produced. And then there's a French-Italian system called SAMP/T that is Patriot-like, that the French have just announced they're going to give two batteries of those to the Ukrainians this year. So that will help plug that gap. And then there's a longer-term project on behalf of France and Italy to give more of these SAMP/T launchers and missiles to Ukraine. Amna Nawaz: I hear you're largely saying, though, months or years for many of the ramping up of production of these. Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.): Months and years, yes. Yes. Amna Nawaz: While we have you, I want to ask you about something else Stephanie Sy reported there about the reporting this week ...
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