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2027 NFL Draft: Which QBs should we believe in? Breaking down 12 of the biggest names heading into the season
This is part of an ongoing look at the 2027 quarterback class, combining my scouting reports with more than a decade of historical data. We've already looked at why this supposedly loaded class may be closer to 2025 than 2024 . We'll keep checking back during the season as the tape -- and the numbers -- change.
The 2027 quarterback class has been called loaded for so long that it almost feels like we've skipped a step. Arch Manning and Dante Moore have been discussed as potential No. 1 picks. LaNorris Sellers has the physical ability NFL evaluators love. Julian Sayin , CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are generating early-round buzz, while several others have spent time in the conversation, too. There are more recognizable names than obvious answers.
The Summer Scouting that Ran Carthon and I do on the With the First Pick podcast gives us one answer. More than a decade of historical quarterback data gives us another. And sometimes they don't agree.
We've already gone deep on Moore, Manning and Jayden Maiava. So let's get to 12 other quarterbacks who could help determine whether the 2027 class lives up to the hype.
The model I've been using for this QB series is the First-Round Readiness Score -- FRED, for short. It looks at the things that have historically separated first-round quarterbacks -- passing efficiency, touchdown and interception rates, QBR, experience and, importantly, a quarterback's best three- and five-game stretches.
The scale is simple: 50 is the historical first-round threshold. Twenty-two quarterbacks in our historical sample had played enough football to reach 50 before their final college seasons. All 22 went in Round 1, including Drake Maye (78.0), Patrick Mahomes (55.7), Jaxson Dart (54.7) and Josh Allen (51.6). One quarterback in the 2027 class is already there: Ohio State's Julian Sayin at 55.3.
FRED isn't my draft grade and it doesn't supersede what we see on the field. It's a way to identify where history agrees with what I'm seeing, where it doesn't and what each quarterback needs to show us next.
*Leavitt does not have an eligible 2025 FRED score after finishing with 239 attempts, 11 short of the model's 250-attempt minimum.
One notable quarterback isn't included in the table: Brendan Sorsby, my QB3 . He won't play in 2026 after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA for gambling violations. Following an unsuccessful attempt to enter the NFL supplemental draft, he'll spend the year preparing for the 2027 NFL Draft .
For everyone else, the numbers don't tell the same story, and neither does the tape. So let's break them into three groups based on what they've shown, what history tells us and how much they still have to prove.
It's easy to understand the fascination. Sellers is a big, powerful athlete with a huge arm who can create plays few quarterbacks can. He's also a locker room leader and, by all accounts, a fantastic human being. But neither my notes going back to 2024 nor the historical profile come particularly close to matching his reputation. Sellers enters 2026 as my QB15. His FRED score? Just 11.9.
That's low for a quarterback entering what could be his final college season. And there are some familiar names who entered their final years in the same neighborhood: Kyle Trask was at 11.9, Sam Ehlinger at 11.5, Will Grier at 9.6 and Drew Lock at 15.2. None became a first-round pick. The exception remains Cam Ward, who entered his final season at 6.8, then jumped to 49.3 at Miami and became the No. 1 pick.
Ward's path illustrates just how much Sellers would have to change. Ward's adjusted YPA went from 8.1 to 10.4 and his QBR from 62.7 to 84.0. Sellers' completion percentage dropped from 64.8% to 59.8% last season. If he's going to follow anything resembling Ward's path, the accuracy, processing and consistency have to take a big leap forward.
Leavitt, like Sellers, is another QB whose physical ability is easy to see. He can create with his legs, extend plays and make throws outside of structure, and his move from Arizona State to join Lane Kiffin at LSU could make the difference. Kiffin helped turn Jaxson Dart into a first-round pick in 2025, then watched Trinidad Chambliss make the jump from Division II to become one of the SEC's best players last season (more on him later).
But Leavitt doesn't have an eligible 2025 FRED score. An injury limited him to seven games and 239 attempts, 11 short of the model's 250-attempt minimum, so there's some important context here. There are first-round throws on the tape. And when the play breaks down, he's one of the most creative quarterbacks in this class.
The problem is that he can almost be too comfortable there. My biggest concern going back to Arizona State is how frenetic he can be from a clean pocket, especially if his first read isn't there. He'll leave the pocket when he doesn't have to, turn down throws that should be made on time and occasionally try to force the spectacular play when the boring one is the better option. The accuracy can be hit or miss, too, particularly when pushing the ball downfield.
If Leavitt becomes more comfortable playing on time and in structure without losing what makes him dangerous when things break down, we'll be having a much different conversation next spring.
Iamaleava was an elite recruit, and it's still easy to see why: He's a long, explosive athlete with a huge arm who can rip intermediate throws and create explosive plays with his legs.
The problem is what happens when he isn't comfortable. My notes consistently come back to how dramatically his processing and decision-making can deteriorate under pressure. He'll hold the ball, take unnecessary sacks and force throws instead of finding the easier answer. That shows up beyond his first read, too, where he can be slow getting to the next option in the progression and too quick to drop his eyes or try to escape the pocket.
And the production went backward, too. His 1.5 FRED score is the lowest of the 12 quarte...
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