RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesMaine voters are weighing concerns about both U.S. Senate candidates, with anxieties over Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins' ties to President Donald Trump outpacing concerns about Democratic challenger Troy Jackson's progressive alignment, according to a Fox News statewide poll released Wednesday.
Collins has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997, winning her fifth term in 2020 by nearly 9 percentage points.
The new survey shows more than half of Maine voters, 55%, are concerned her voting record aligns with President Trump too often, while fewer, 43%, are worried Jackson is too close to the democratic socialist movement.
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By a 14-point margin, more independents are worried Collins is too close to Trump than are concerned Jackson is too close to the democratic socialists.
Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash and former president of the Maine Senate, replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee in July after Platner withdrew amid an assault allegation.
Jackson’s candidacy makes the contest more of a referendum on Collins: 61% of his supporters say their vote is mainly against Collins, up from 48% when Platner was the opponent. Only 36% say they’re voting for Jackson, down from Platner’s 50%.
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The contrast is even clearer for Collins: 71% of her backers say they’re voting mainly for her, up from 53% in June. Just 27% are voting against Jackson, down from 45% when it was Platner.
Despite a major change in the Democratic ticket, the survey finds the Maine Senate race remains competitive. Jackson tops Collins by 2 percentage points, 48-46%, well within the survey’s margin of sampling error. In June, Collins was ahead of Platner by 3 points. Since then, Collins’ support is down 4 points, while Jackson does 1 point better than Platner.
Among the subgroup of voters who rate themselves a 10-out-of-10 on certainty to vote, Jackson’s edge increases to 4 points (50-46%).
By an 8-point margin, more of those backing Collins say their choice is locked in. One in five Jackson supporters say they may change their mind before voting.
Roughly 9 in 10 partisans back their respective candidate, while independents narrowly prefer Jackson.
Jackson’s best groups include liberals, women with a college degree and those under age 35. He also leads among men under age 45 and those in union households. He’s favored by women by 4 points, while men are evenly divided.
Collins’ biggest support comes from conservatives, White evangelical Christians, men ages 45 and up and voters without a college degree. She’s also ahead among rural and married voters.
Compared to Platner’s numbers in June, Jackson mostly holds steady with key constituencies including women, voters with a college degree and suburban voters, while making gains among those under age 45 (12 points better than Platner). At the same time, Collins’ previous 10-point advantage among men has evaporated.
Almost all MAGA Republicans back Collins, but that drops to three-quarters among non-MAGA Republicans (nearly one in five non-MAGA back Jackson).
For Jackson, almost all supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) movement back him, but that falls to two-thirds among non-DSA Democrats and independents.
"Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
"The race remains close, and I’d never count Collins out, but you have to give a slight edge to the Democrats here."
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Collins is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (former Vice President Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points). Meanwhile, Trump’s personal favorable rating is underwater by 20 points (39% favorable vs. 59% unfavorable).
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate.
Inflation remains the top issue in Maine, and one-third say it will be the most important factor in deciding their Senate vote. The other priorities are immigration/border security, healthcare and political divisions within the country.
Part of Jackson’s lead is built on the support of the 4 in 10 who say they’re falling behind financially, where he leads by 29 points.
Ratings of Collins are unfavorable by 10 points (44% vs. 54%), which is more negative than in June when her ratings were underwater by 3 points (47-50%). Jackson’s favorable rating is positive by a single point (47% favorable vs. 46% unfavorable). Views of both Senate candidates are more positive than those of their respective political parties.
Voters who hold negative opinions of both candidates prefer Jackson by 3 points in the horse race, while those viewing both major parties unfavorably back him by 22 points.
Ratings for both MAGA and DSA are about equally negative, with MAGA at minus 19 points and DSA at minus 21. However, there is more intensity in views of MAGA, as 50% have a "strongly" unfavorable opinion of it compared to 38% saying the same about DSA.
Many more Democrats than Republicans say they’re extremely interested in the election (D+18), and are more motivated to vote (D+9), but nearly equal numbers of both groups say they are certain to cast a ballot in November (D+3).
In the governor’s race, Democrat Hannah Pingree continues to lead Republican Bobby Charles by 11 points, with third-party candidate Rick Bennett garnering 9%. However, nearly 3 voters in 10 say their preference in the race could change.
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Party loyalty plays a big part in Pingree’s lead, as more Democrats (92%) support her than Republicans (83%) back Charles — and the largest share of independents favo...
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