RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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New Michigan football offensive coordinator Jason Beck has had a two-year track record of having the fourth overall total offense and second-ranked rushing offense in the country. However, he did it in the Mountain West at New Mexico and then in the Big 12 at Utah. In the Big Ten, especially with Michigan football's schedule this season, he'll have more of an uphill battle.
But how much so? We took a look at 12 of the games that Beck had last year at Utah, in terms of where opposing defenses were ranked by the end of the season, and then who the opponents he'll be facing this year, and what they ranked to end the season last year. It's not a one-for-one, however. Take Ohio State , which had a generational defense. It lost all but one starter on that side of the ball. While still expected to be good, the likelihood of it being No. 1 in the country is small. Yet, Oregon , which was No. 7, has a chance to move up given how many players it has returning.
Here are the average defenses that Beck faced last year:
Total defense: 69.5
Run defense: 82.25
Pass defense: 51.92
Scoring defense: 74.25
And here is what he'll face this year, given last year's numbers for the teams on the schedule:
Total defense: 39.5
Run defense: 48.42
Pass defense: 36.25
Scoring defense: 48.08
Save for pass defense, each team he'll face this year is ranked about 30 spots higher in each category. It should be noted that Michigan and Beck had a common opponent last year, in Nebraska , and Beck was significantly better offensively than what the Wolverines put out there. Utah amassed 535 yards against the Huskers, whereas the Wolverines managed 391 yards. Nebraska was the second-most difficult defense that Beck and his offense faced last year, ranked 30th overall, with the stats from the bowl game included.
Only once did Beck face off against a top 10 defense, Texas Tech (No. 3), and he had his lowest yardage output, lowest rushing output, and lowest scoring output. It was Week 4 last year, and he'll face two defenses in the first four weeks this year that were ranked in the top 10 ( Oklahoma was No. 6 and Iowa was No. 9) and another in the teens (Western Michigan was No. 17). There are three more defenses on the schedule this year that were top 10 units last year (Indiana was No. 4, Oregon was No. 7, and Ohio State was No. 1). And there's two more defenses he'll face that were in the top 50 ( Penn State was No. 25 and Minnesota was No. 34). Overall, he faced four defenses last year that were in the top 50 (Texas Tech, Nebraska, BYU was No. 35, and Wyoming was No. 45).
His top offensive output came against No. 83 Kansas State, his top rushing output came against No. 135 Colorado , his top passing output came against No. 3 Nebraska (which is a solid result), and his top scoring output came against No. 122 Baylor. Of course, this is expected -- you do better against the worse teams. And against the 45th-ranked total defense, Wyoming, he did put up 541 yards, his third-most of the year against a Division I opponent. Given that his offense's best passing performance came against the best pass defense he'd seen, there is room for opportunity.
But it was all abysmal against Texas Tech, which is much closer to the defensive rankings he'll see often in the Big Ten. Ranked third overall, first against the rush, 26th against the pass, and third in scoring, the only metric his unit did OK against was the pass -- otherwise, they were season lows. His worst passing attack came against No. 31 Baylor, the fourth-best passing defense he saw that year. But it should be noted that against Nebraska, it was a season-high; against No. 14 Wyoming, the pass game had 230 yards; against No. 35 UCLA , it had 206 yards through the air. Eight of the teams on the schedule this year were in the top 50 last season in pass defense.
Rushing the football is Beck's forte, and he only faced three teams in the top 50: Texas Tech at No. 1, BYU at No. 30, and Arizona State at No. 31. Utah managed just 101 yards against the Red Raiders, but fared much better in the other two contests. In the loss to BYU, the Utes ran for 226 yards. In the win over Arizona State, it was 276 yards. That's good news considering the schedule this year features seven teams that were in the top 50 in run defense this past season.
Of course, it should be noted that he has much more talent to work with at Michigan than he had at Utah last year. The Utes were 44th in 247Sports' team talent overall while Michigan was 11th. That was last year's roster, and encompassed the entire team, but he had zero five-stars, and the entire program had 13 four-stars on the roster. At Michigan, he'll have much more, with a five-star quarterback in Bryce Underwood, a five-star running back in Savion Hiter, and four-stars nearly across the board. Of the players projected to start or be heavy contributors, here's who were four-stars or above as recruits:
QB Bryce Underwood (five-star)
RB Jordan Marshall
RB Savion Hiter (five-star
WR Andrew Marsh
WR JJ Buchanan (followed Beck from Utah)
WR Salesi Moa (five-star)
RHINO Andrew Babalola (five-star)
LT Blake Frazier
LG Evan Link
RG Nathan Efobi
RT Andrew Sprague
TE Hogan Hansen
TE Deakon Tonielli
That's not an exhaustive list by any means, as there are other younger players, like wide receiver Travis Johnson or offensive guard Avery Gach, who were also four-stars. And then you have three-stars who have risen to the occasion, like stalwart center Jake Guarnera, running back Bryson Kuzdzal, or tight end Zack Marshall. So Beck will be equipped with more talented players, at least in terms of their high school recruiting ranking.
So there have been signs that Beck has been able to work against top-tier defensive units (like Nebraska's pass defense), but just as many that he can't get much going against a truly elite defense (Texas Tech). He wasn&...
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