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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 2h ago
Opponent Preview: Week 5
CHAMPAIGN, IL - OCTOBER 12: Illinois Fighting Illini Linebacker Kenenna Odeluga (39) holds up the Cannon Trophy after the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Illinois Fighting Illini on October 12, 2024, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Last season, Illinois was up 10-7 with 5 minutes left in the second quarter in a competitive game. They went to the locker room with a 27-14 lead. That’s Purdue’s 2025 season in a nutshell. For the most part, things went ok until they didn’t. Sometimes the Boilermakers waited to implode at the end of the game, as they did against Minnesota, and other times, they hit the self-destruct button early. Take away the last five minutes of the half, and this game might go down to the wire. Then again, as the saying goes, “if my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a wagon.” I don’t think Purdue is going to be overwhelmed by Illinois’ talent. They’re talented, but they’re not Notre Dame-level talented. That’s the first hurdle this Purdue team faces week in and week out, and they clear it against this bunch.
2025 starting quarterback Luke Altmyer is off to the NFL, and Bielema went out and landed East Carolina (by way of Michigan State) quarterback Katin Houser as a one-season rental to plug the hole. Houser threw for 3,300 yards for the Pirates last season and helped lead ECU to an 8-win season, including a bowl win over Pittsburgh. He’ll be looking to make a triumphant return to the Big 10 after compiling a 2-5 record for Michigan State in 2023 that included 6 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. The step down in competition helped stabilize his career, but I’m interested to see how he responds to stepping back up this season. He has the potential to be an excellent Big 10 quarterback, but he’s got some things to prove.
Ca’Lil Valentine returns after leading the team in rushing last season, but the 2025 team was built around Altmyer. I was surprised their leading rusher only went for 614 yards last season. To the surprise of no one, he had his best game against Purdue’s run defense last season, putting up a season-high 95 yards on a season-high 22 carries. He had 10 combined carries against Ohio State and Washington in his next two outings. Teams really liked running the ball against the Boilermakers last season. The first step in turning things around is forcing the other team to throw the ball and not letting backs like Valentine dominate games. The added depth on the defensive line should help in that endeavor.
If Purdue can figure out a way to slow down Illinois on the ground, they’ll have a shot. I’m not sold on Illinois’s receiving group. Collin Dixon and Hudson Clement are back. They were solid as the #2 and #3 option behind Hank Beatty last season, but one of them will need to step up into the WR1 role in 2026. While Houser isn’t a new quarterback, he’s new to the team, and not having a clear #1 receiver makes things a little more difficult in terms of decision-making. My guess is that Dixon will be the #1, but my guess is worth very little.
One thing that brings me some hope is the Illinois offensive line. They’re replacing three starters from last season with transfers, and that’s usually a tough transition to make. We’ll know more by the time Week 5 rolls around, but it’s something to keep an eye on early in the season.
Illinois lost star defensive lineman/linebacker Gabe Jacas to the NFL and will need to find someone else to provide a pass rush and create havoc in the backfield in their 3-3-5 defensive system. Along with Jacas, they also lose two out of three starters on the defensive line. This is another game where Purdue’s theoretical rededication to running the ball could pay dividends because Illinois is stacked on the back end of the defense, with corner Xavier Scott and safety Matthew Bailey both being named to the preseason All-Big 10 3rd-team defense. It seems like running against a revamped defensive front could be easier than trying to throw the ball against the strength of the defense, but week 5 is a long way away and plenty of things could change by then.
As for now, I think this is another game where Purdue won’t be favored but will have a fighting chance as something like 7–10-point underdogs on the road (another guess on my part). They’ll need to figure out a way to pull off a few upsets if they wa...
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