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Anthropic Overtakes SpaceX In Betting Odds For 2026’s Biggest IPO
Topline Anthropic overtook SpaceX in Polymarket odds for the largest initial public offering of 2026, with traders favoring the AI startup despite a record-shattering IPO from SpaceX earlier this year.
A proposition titled, “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?” has Anthropic at 58% odds of having the largest public offering this year, while SpaceX holds 44% odds.
SpaceX’s odds on the proposition were as high as 90% just two weeks ago, though increasing information about Anthropic and its looming IPO, which could happen as soon as October, has given traders less confidence it will hold its title of having the year’s largest debut.
Anthropic plans to tell investors it sees over $30 trillion in potential revenue, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, exceeding the $28.5 trillion estimate given by SpaceX for its own total addressable market.
Anthropic is targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation with its IPO and could raise up to $100 billion in funding.
SpaceX went public with a $1.7 trillion valuation and raised $85.7 billion in June.
$5.6 million. That is how much money traders have sunk into the proposition, with more than $835,000 wagered on Anthropic and more than $820,000 bet on SpaceX.
OpenAI plans to go public by at least next year, with early reports suggesting an over $1 trillion valuation upon its IPO.
SpaceX’s stock debuted at $150 per share following its IPO. While Anthropic has not set an IPO price, SpaceX shares have slid to around the $139 mark after debuting in June, recovering from a slump earlier this month that sent shares as low as $106. While the two companies are competitors in the AI sector, they maintain a close relationship through a computing infrastructure partnership that allows Anthropic to power some of its workloads with hardware from xAI, a subsidiary of SpaceX. Elon Musk has also reversed his negative stance against Anthropic, calling the company “the leader in AI” in a July post and lauding Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, a groundbreaking model with cybersecurity features so vast, the company has held back on a full-scale public release over concerns it could be used to attack major web browsers and operating systems.
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