RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are the two candidates for the first overall pick in fantasy drafts this season. Gibbs' average draft position is 1.62 and Robinson's is 1.94 in CBS PPR formats.
It's easy to see why they are in competition for the top selection. They rank third (Gibbs: 971.9) and fourth (Robinson: 958.8) in fantasy points among RB through three seasons since 1970. Only LaDainian Tominson (1,099.3) and Christian McCaffrey (1,087.3) scored more.
Gibbs has the most TD scored by any player before turning 24 in NFL history (49) and Robinson has the most scrimmage yards before age 24 all-time (5,648). These are the two most electric ball carriers in football, in their prime, and with less competition for touches in 2026.
Dan Campbell said Gibbs will be the "bell cow" after David Montgomery was traded to the Texans (Detroit signed Isiah Pacheco). Robinson won't have to split touches in the Falcons' backfield with Tyler Allgeier (he signed with the Cardinals), although Atlanta did sign Brian Robinson.
Fantasy owners should be salivating at the chance to take either player, but who should be the top pick? It's an easy choice for me at least. Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs already led all non-QBs in fantasy points (729.8) in the past two seasons despite 109 fewer touches than Robinson. Gibbs averaged 0.20 more fantasy points per touch in that time than Robinson.
If you look at the entirety of their careers Gibbs averages the second-most fantasy points per touch (1.135) among RB with 15+ touches per game since 1970 (behind only De'Von Achane).
Even if both get a larger piece of the pie this year, that's enough of a disparity to cast my vote for Gibbs. Gibbs already scored 12 more TD than Robinson in the past two years and that gap could get even larger based on each player's workload in the red area in that span.
Former Lions RB David Montgomery had over half of the Lions rushes in the following situations in the last two years: goal-to-go, inside five, at one-yard line. He also ranked top five in the NFL in goal-to-go rushes (51) in that span. Robinson had a bigger piece of the Falcons pie. In other words, there's more scoring chances for Gibbs to gain in 2026.
Based on his production in the last two years, don't be shocked if Gibbs posts an all-time great RB season in 2026.
He has already put up historic numbers in the last two years. He is one of 19 RBs all-time to average 100+ scrimmage yards and at least one scrimmage TD per game in back-to-back seasons. He's the only one of the 19 to average under 20 touches per game each year.
He doesn't have a single game with 30+ touches in the past 2 seasons, yet still led all non-QBs in fantasy points. He's recorded the second-most scrimmage yards (3,768) by any player in a two-year span without a 30-touch game since Jim Brown in 1963-64.
The sky is the limit. But you don't have to imagine what Gibbs can do with a big workload in 2026. Let me show you. Here's what Gibbs' season could look like in 2026 based on his averages in 2025 with an inflated touch total.
Of course, real life doesn't operate in a vacuum. Gibbs could wear down later in games or later in the season with a higher touch total. His averages have trended down after the 200+ touch mark of a season in his brief three-year career. Check out his career yards per touch based on the touch number he's at in that season. It's 5.4 on his first 100 touches, 6.9 on touches 101-200, then falls to 5.1 on touches 201-300 and 5.2 at 300+.
Recent history shows an elite running back who increases their touch total by a substantial amount will see only a modest increase in fantasy point production as efficiency drops.
There have been six RBs since 2000 who increased their touch total by 70+ coming off a top-five fantasy RB finish. On average that group increased their fantasy point total by 39 points (or 12% increase).
While that doesn't suggest a massive leap is in store for Gibbs, he could be an outlier. I'm also not hating the fact that he did MMA training in March to prepare for his bell cow role.
We also have to account for the Lions' improved offensive line. They've fallen off in the last two years, especially after starting C Frank Ragnow retired last offseason. Detroit's run block win rate fell from ninth to 16th to 20th in the past three seasons per ESPN Analytics. The Lions line should be better this year after adding Panthers C Cade Mays in free agency and drafting OT Blake Miller in the first round.
Detroit also has a better QB situation, supporting cast and offense than Atlanta.
It all points to Gibbs as the home run first overall pick over Robinson in 2026 fantasy drafts.
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