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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 2h ago
Can the Houston Rockets Win 50 Games in the Upcoming 2026-27 NBA Season?
In the last two NBA seasons, the Houston Rockets finished with a 52-30 record both times. For this upcoming NBA 2026-2027 season, the sportsbooks' markets have set the over/under win total for the Rockets at 47.5
This means there is around a 50% chance the team wins 47 or fewer games throughout the season, and therefore around a 50% chance the team wins 48 or more games.Before the 2025-2026 NBA season began, sportsbooks set the win total over/under at 53.5 wins, which was a spot-on line.
The line was set higher last year than it is this year because of the hype that surrounded the Rockets, mostly because of the Kevin Durant trade. The line is set six wins lower this year. It is likely that it is lower now because of the disappointing ending to last season, losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Los Angeles Lakers.
However, Houston is getting Fred VanVleet back, and have made some roster changes that improve the team. Fred VanVleet missed the entire previous season after tearing his ACL during preseason. Fred VanVleet is expected to be the starting point guard, playing around 30 minutes per game. The impact that he plays on the offensive side of the game will make a big difference, as he averages 14.1 points and 5.6 assists per game .
VanFleet is also comfortable taking three-point attempts and shoots them at a high volume. Houston averaged 31.5 three-point attempts per game last season, which was almost last place in the NBA, ranking 28th overall.
Taking three-point shots helps spread out the defense and create bigger driving lanes. The small number of three-point shots attempted made it easy for the defense to stay compact, and Houston’s offense was forced into a lot of isolation plays because of it.
Houston recently hired the “Shot Doctor” Chip Engelland as the assistant coach. Engelland was brought in to help the players' shooting techniques improve. He will also help improve ball movement and create easier shots for the whole team.
Houston has also added a few veterans such as Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanović to the team to help lead the young core and also increase roster depth. With the talented young core developing well and starting to flourish on the court, the Rockets should be able to perform at nearly the same level, if not higher, that they did last season.
FanDuel currently has Houston winning 50 or more games at +165, which has an implied probability of 37.74%. Considering the improvements to the roster, does this percentage of probability seem fair?
CanHouston Rockets WinGamesUpcomingNBA SeasonHouston RocketsNBARocketsBeforeKevin DurantLos Angeles LakersHowever
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