RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The Major League Baseball trade deadline is set for Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. ET, exactly one week away. In an ideal world, we'd have just about 15 buyers and 15 sellers, making for some nice and tidy trade rumors. In reality, thanks in part to the playoff field expansion before the 2022 season and a rather mediocre group of wild-card contenders, we have a lot more teams in position to buy than sell.
Specifically, there are only eight teams -- four in each league -- more than 3 ½ games out of playoff position right now. Considering we saw a team come back from 15 ½ games to win a division last season, I'd say it would be incredibly difficult for a front office to justify selling to a fan base when just 3 ½ games out.
Is the path clear for a big-time seller's market? Perhaps! But let's examine the field and where everyone stands with just one week to go.
There isn't a ton of discussion needed here. Each of these teams is a strong contender that isn't in imminent danger of falling out of a playoff spot. All except the Rays and Braves were playoff teams last season, and those two squads aren't postseason strangers, so there isn't an element of "just happy to be here" to any of these ballclubs. Each strongly desires a deep postseason run.
Each of these teams is in position to buy and has its sights on a playoff spot. The Rangers are in first place, but they're only a game and a half away from being left out in the cold, and a lot could change in one week. The White Sox look like obvious buyers, as they sit in first place, but keep in mind this is still an upstart team working back from a rebuild. That is to say that they aren't a surefire candidate to mortgage the farm for a rental. The Astros are three games under .500, but their lame duck GM is looking to buy . The Mariners look like a broken team, but sit just 1 ½ games out and made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS last season. We could run through something similar for every team on this list. The gist is they are all flawed but have a shot to make noise.
Can Mike Elias justify selling to his bosses when he's had the job since 2019 and would now be two full seasons removed from back-to-back playoff berths? They're close enough to buy, but the team sure doesn't seem like a contender. The Marlins have lost 12 straight and look headed for a sell-off, but if they get hot again, they could well be right back in playoff position. The Twins felt destined to sell from the beginning of the season, yet they sit just one game behind the last wild card. The Nationals already made a challenge trade and could well have more in store there.
The Tigers are the ones to watch with Tarik Skubal hitting free agency after the season. They are 3 ½ games behind the third wild card right now. They surely want to go for it, but if they fall a few more games back, do they cut their future losses and deal Skubal before he leaves in free agency?
Do the Jays have one last gasp? They'd better hustle. They are 5 ½ games back of a playoff spot with five teams to leapfrog. The Cardinals are 13-21 since June 16 and were positioned to sell heading into the season, so they're right back on schedule. Still, they are just a game and a half out of the third National League wild-card race, so a big week here could change things. Does president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom move up the timeline or stick to his plan? The Reds made the playoffs last season and had aspirations to return this year, but sit five back of a berth right now.
None of these teams is closer than nine games to a playoff spot, so it's over. They might as well take advantage of the market.
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