RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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We're in the middle of August, which means Fantasy drafts are starting to happen for real. With that in mind, we can study the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data since it's now a good representation of what's happening in your drafts.
Some of the picks make a lot of sense. Others, well, I'd love to play in some of these leagues.
Let's go through each position and find some good value picks, some players who are being drafted too soon and predict which players might rise -- and fall -- over the next several weeks. I love breaking down the ADP, and we'll do it each week prior to Week 1.
Knowing the ADP is a good guide to help you on Draft Day, but don't follow it verbatim. Instead, use rankings and tiers from your favorite Fantasy analyst. That's the best way to build your team.
Allen's ADP is 20.9, and he's the only quarterback being selected in the first three rounds. Lamar Jackson is next at 40.8. The No. 12 quarterback, Matthew Stafford , is at 98.6, and he was the No. 1 player in Fantasy points in 2025.
I love Allen, but I'm not drafting him in Round 2. The value at the position is too good, and I'd rather target Justin Herbert at 86.1 or Trevor Lawrence at 98.5. I'm also fine waiting for Jared Goff at 114.5.
Allen would have to obliterate the field to justify drafting him in Round 2, and I don't expect that to happen, even with the addition of D.J. Moore. Let someone else draft Allen at his current cost.
Mahomes is being drafted at 101.9, and that's the right price at QB14. Don't chase his name this season, and he's just a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback.
He's coming off last year's torn ACL and LCL in his knee, but he's expected to play in Week 1. Prior to getting injured, Mahomes was having his best Fantasy season since 2022 at 23.6 points per game. Part of that was due to him setting a career high for rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (five) in just 14 games, but it's hard to imagine him relying on his legs this season due to the injury. And the Chiefs seem inclined to run the ball more the ball this season after signing Kenneth Walker III .
It might seem weird to see Mahomes in this range, but let someone else draft him as a starter if so inclined. You should only target Mahomes as a high-end QB2.
The following quarterbacks are being selected in Round 10 or later based on their ADP:
Goff has averaged at least 20.1 Fantasy points per game in each of the past four seasons with the Lions -- with a high of 23.4 points per game in 2024 -- and he's passed for at least 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns in each year. The Lions also have an amazing schedule and will play only five outdoor games through Week 17.
You might not know that Nix averaged 22.1 Fantasy points as a rookie in 2024 and 22.6 Fantasy points last year. He now gets Jaylen Waddle , and we hope Nix will continue to run coming off last year's ankle injury in the postseason, as he had at least 356 yards and four rushing touchdowns in each of the past two years. If healthy, this could be Nix's best season to date.
Murray is officially the starter in Minnesota, and he has top-12 upside this season. He will hopefully benefit from Kevin O'Connell's tutelage, and it will be great if Murray continues to use his legs. He averaged 36.7 rushing yards per game in his career, with 32 rushing touchdowns. Murray should also benefit from throwing to Justin Jefferson , Jordan Addison , Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson , which is the best receiving corps of his career.
Shough took over as the Saints starter in Week 9 last year as a rookie, and he scored at least 20.1 Fantasy points in six of his final eight games while averaging 20.3 points over that span. Saints coach Kellen Moore's history is a plus for Shough. As an offensive coordinator for Dallas (2019-22), the Chargers (2023) and Philadelphia (2024), Moore's quarterbacks ( Dak Prescott , Herbert and Jalen Hurts ) have scored at least 20.4 Fantasy points in each season and averaged 24.2 points over that span. Adding Jordyn Tyson to Chris Olave is also a huge plus for Shough.
The weapons in Miami are terrible for Willis, but he might be a tremendous weapon all by himself given his rushing ability. He has played at least 64 percent of the snaps in eight games since 2022 with Green Bay and Tennessee, and Willis has rushed for at least 40 yards in six of them, with four rushing touchdowns. To put that in perspective, only six quarterbacks in NFL history with a minimum of 10 games played have averaged more than 40 yards rushing per game.
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