RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Denver, New England, Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh were among the NFL ‘s biggest surprises in 2025. Carolina snuck into the playoffs on a Week 18 tiebreaker with a losing record. Many thought they’d improve, but each franchise overperformed based on early expectations and made the postseason. With that in mind, some might argue these teams are overrated entering 2026.
All six now face a harder road in 2026, whether from a brutal new schedule, an aging quarterback, injury attrition or a defense that can no longer paper over the same problems.
Here are the most overrated NFL teams that are headed for a worse win-loss record this fall.
MORE: 6 NFL teams most likely to improve their record in 2026
Denver Broncos
Head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills. Prediction: 10-7
Denver compiled a 14-3 record in 2025 and lost the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix broke his ankle in the divisional round, needing surgery and a second procedure to remove bone spurs. Nix is back with no lingering concerns.
The bigger issue is the schedule. Denver’s 2025 slate was a major reason for its record, and the 2026 schedule is considerably tougher, with 10 games against the AFC West and NFC West . The Broncos also won a string of close games last season that are unlikely to repeat at the same rate.
New England Patriots
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) spins a ball on his finger before a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. Prediction: 10-7
New England went 14-3 and reached Super Bowl LX behind a historically favorable schedule, before losing to Seattle 29-13. That schedule flips hard in 2026. The Patriots lost several depth pieces in free agency, and their 2026 slate is filled with playoff teams from a season ago instead of the bottom-feeders that padded last year’s record.
Drake Maye was excellent as a first-time starter, but replicating a 14-win season is a different task against a murderer’s row of contenders . The additions of AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs help the receiving room, but a much harder 17-game gauntlet awaits.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen looks on during warmups before the game against the San Francisco 49ers. Prediction: 9-8
Jacksonville made a big jump in 2025 with a 13-4 record. The Jags went on to win the AFC South behind Trevor Lawrence’s strong finish to the season. The Jaguars didn’t sign a single notable free agent this offseason (sorry to the RB Chris Rodriguez fans), a quiet approach that stands out against a division and conference that kept improving around them.
The schedule closes with 10 games in the final stretch, seven on the road, two on short weeks, after Jacksonville hosts back-to-back games in London. Lawrence enters his second year in Liam Coen’s offense healthy, but a 13-win season built on a hot final stretch rarely repeats itself exactly.
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Chicago Bears
(NFL) Bears head coach Ben Johnson walks on the field during minicamp. Prediction: 8-9
Chicago went 11-6 and won the NFC North, but head coach Ben Johnson has publicly called his own team the league’s top regression candidate . The Bears had the league’s best turnover margin and went 8-5 in one-score games, both figures that rarely sustain year to year. Their defense ranked 27th in points allowed per drive on non-turnover possessions and 29th in pressure rate.
Chicago also swaps a last-place schedule for a first-place one, facing the NFC South and AFC East, including the Buccaneers, Patriots and Bills. In a competitive NFL division, records can easily flip.
Pittsburgh Steelers
(NFL) Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy (left) talks with quarterback Aaron Rodgers (right) before the game against the New York Jets. Prediction: 7-10
Pittsburgh went 10-7 and won the AFC North, but lost 30-6 in the wild-card round to Houston. Aaron Rodgers, now 42 and playing what he has called his final season, graded below league average in EPA per play, completion percentage over expectation and bad-throw rate. The defense finished outside the top 10 in DVOA after years near the top.
ESPN’s Future Power Rankings panel rated Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation the worst in the league entering 2026, and new head coach Mike McCarthy inherits a roster built to lean on a defense that is no longer as dominant.
Carolina Panthers
Panthers head coach Dave Canales looks on against the Seattle Seahawks. (NFL) Prediction: 5-12
Carolina won the NFC South at 8-9, needing a Week 18 tiebreaker just to clinch the division. The Panthers went 6-2 in one-score games and beat only two teams with winning records all season. Better to be lucky than good. A clear case of an overrated team if there ever was one.
Injuries have piled up fast: left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, right tackle Taylor Moton, defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton, edge rusher Nic Scourton, receiver Chris Brazzell II and running back Chuba Hubbard have all been banged up this offseason . Bryce Young has yet to prove he can carry an NFL offense. While the division still lacks a clear frontrunner, it remains up for grabs.
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