RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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June's Federal Open Market Committee meeting ended with a much shorter statement from the Federal Reserve, and with Chairman Kevin Warsh not giving a forecast on the outlook for rates. It's likely he will continue a tight-lipped approach this week, as Kalshi traders point to potential words the recently minted central bank leader will mention.
An event contract asking what Warsh will say in the next press conference shows over 50% odds that the Fed chief will mention the word "shock", along with a 74% chance that he will say "oil". The event contract is one of the leading mention markets on the platform as of Monday afternoon — and will be resolved based on what Warsh says at a press conference set for Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This week's Fed meeting, along with the contract on which words Warsh will utter this week, come after Iran and the U.S. paused their fighting. Last week, both countries exchanged attacks, briefly pushing Brent crude back above $100 per barrel. The halt took the air out the oil gains, with Brent trading back below $89 on Monday.
Though Kalshi traders see a likelihood of Warsh referring to an energy supply shock, Bank of America on Monday said it is "textbook policy" for the central bank to ignore responding to it.
The Fed is largely expected to keep its overnight benchmark rate unchanged, per the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Evercore ISI noted that, "It would be odd to [hike rates] right after the better June inflation print given an uncomplicated path to hike in September if needed."
"But we cannot take the probability too low given Warsh's refusal to set out his strategy, and renewed US-Iran conflict that has revived the energy shock and pushed up yields," the firm added. One Kalshi contract, asking traders what will be the Fed decision in July, projects a nearly 75% chance that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels.
To be sure, odds of a rate hike this week have increased to around 38% from 16% last week, per FedWatch. Similarly, another Kalshi contract asking when the next Fed hike will be, shows 68% odds of one taking place this year. Both Kalshi contracts on potential rates will be verified by the Federal Reserve.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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