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Week 1 of the NFL preseason continues through Saturday as the 2026 Fantasy football ADP is beginning to take shape. Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the players going off the board first on average. It's generally all running backs and receivers in the first two rounds, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen is going off the board at pick No. 19 as Fantasy players have clearly valued him in a tier of his own as no other QBs are among the top 35 drafted on average. Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are deadlocked as the first tight end coming off the board around pick No. 27.
Who are the top 2026 Fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, busts and riskiest picks, and how should you approach your 2026 Fantasy football drafts? Before setting your 2026 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2026 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine .
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Last year, the model accurately predicted that Colts quarterback Daniel Jones would fully realize his potential in his first year in Indy. He was the QB10 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 14. Jones finished the year as the QB17 as the model had him as a top-15 Fantasy quarterback entering 2025. Anyone who took a chance on him in Fantasy football drafts was surely rewarded when he was in the lineup.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021, calling Rachaad White's breakout in 2023 and identifying Isiah Pacheco as a bust in 2025. Additionally, it has called past Fantasy football sleepers like A.J. Brown in 2020, Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest 2026 Fantasy football rankings for PPR and non-PPR leagues, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them .
One of the 2026 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce. He was one of the top big-play receivers in the league last year, finishing second in the league with an average of 21.3 yards per reception. He finished the year as a top-25 Fantasy WR with a 47-1003-6 receiving line, cashing in on a four-year, $114 million contract extension.
He is rehabbing an ankle injury in camp, which might be one reason that he's slipped to an ADP of around No. 68 overall. With Michael Pittman gone, however, SportsLine's model is extremely high on Pierce's outlook, ranking him above receivers such as Maik Nabers and Justin Jefferson, both of whom are going much earlier in Fantasy drafts. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2026 here .
One of the 2026 Fantasy football breakouts the model is predicting: Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten, who has an ADP of No. 57 overall, but is going as low as pick No. 94 in some cases. A fourth-round NFL Draft pick in 2025, Tuten had 386 yards and 7 touchdowns as a rookie in backing up Travis Etienne. The latter has since joined the Saints, putting Tuten atop the depth chart. He impressed when given opportunities as a rookie, scoring in all four games he had at least nine touches.
Tuten is a home-run threat in an offense in need of playmakers as he had the fastest 40-yard-dash time of any running back in the 2025 draft class. Etienne had nearly 1,400 total yards and 13 touchdowns a year ago, and Jacksonville loves to run the ball, ranking eighth in attempts in 2025. Tuten is set to break out as a sophomore and presents as a value pick in the mid-rounds of Fantasy football drafts 2026. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2026 here .
As for players to avoid, the model identifies Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker's Fantasy stock is sky high after he was dominant in the playoffs last year as a key piece of Seattle's Super Bowl run. Now he joins a Kansas City backfield without a lot of competition, and he's going off the board at pick No. 23 overall on average in Fantasy drafts.
Andy Reid's pass-first offense hasn't been friendly to running backs, however, from a Fantasy standpoint as no Kansas City back has cleared 1,000 yards on the ground since 2017. Walker also brings some injury risk after missing at least one game in 2022, 2023 and 2024. SportsLine's model ranks backs such as Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift and Bucky Irving higher, making Walker a player to avoid in upcoming Fantasy drafts. See more Fantasy football busts 2026 here .
SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising tight end you aren't even thinking about being taken in the early rounds of 2026 Fantasy football drafts. This tight end is listed as a shocking top-8 option ahead of stars like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta. You can only see who it is, and the 2026 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine .
So which 2026 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which TE shocks the NFL with a top-8 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2026 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Daniel Jones' breakout season in 2025 , and find out.
(PPR, via CBS) Get Fantasy football cheat sheets at SportsLine .
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (1.42) 2. Bijan Robinson (1.91) 3. Ja'Marr Chase (4.00) 4. Puka Nacua (4.49) 5. Jonathan Taylor (5.53) 6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.64) 7. Christian McCaffrey (6.57) 8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.79) 9. De'Von Achane (11.23) 10. James Cook (11.81)
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