2026 National League MVP: Expert picks for Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

2026 National League MVP: Expert picks for Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

The tightest race down the stretch isn't the NL East or the American League wild card, but rather the National League MVP, a ferocious battle between Dodgers two-way (though not for the entire season) superstar Shohei Ohtani and Cubs whiz kid Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Ohtani, as ridiculous as it sounds, is having a down year. He's only hitting .287/.388/.546 with a 158 OPS+ and he's only pitched 85 ⅔ innings, albeit with a 1.79 ERA. After knee and bicep injuries, he's expected to return to the mound soon, but will that be enough for his fourth consecutive MVP and fifth overall?

Crow-Armstrong, meanwhile, is finally putting together the full breakout season he's been teasing for years. He's hitting .276/.375/.550 in his second straight 30-30 season with stellar baserunning and the best center field defense in the game. How we value defense has long been one of the biggest questions in baseball and its answer has never been more important than this year.

We won't know who wins until November, but your CBS Sports experts have placed their (hypothetical) votes now.

Mike Axisa: I would vote for PCA if the voting were held today (note: I don't have an NL MVP vote this year). The offensive performance is comparable, though I would give PCA a slight edge in that department because his baserunning is among the best in the game. Ohtani's 14 pitching starts were excellent and incredibly valuable. Are they more valuable than PCA's 1,100 innings of arguably the best defense at any position in the sport? I don't think so. If PCA were "just" an above-average defender, I'd go Ohtani, but his defense is outrageously good. I reserve the right to change my mind over the next five weeks. As of today, I'd go with PCA. (Who would even be third in the voting? Corbin Carroll or James Wood ? This is a two-man race all the way.)

Kate Feldman: If Ohtani comes back and pitches like we know he can down the stretch, this becomes a slightly different conversation, but right now, it's PCA. I have my problems with defensive metrics but I don't need an Outs Above Average leaderboard or fielding run value to measure Crow-Armstrong's impact out there. And it's not just those spectacular highlight-reel plays either; he just gets every ball hit his way, and even some that aren't. We've seen the bat look like this for brief spells before but he's just finally put it all together and kept it there. Imagine the Dodgers without Ohtani. Now imagine the Cubs without PCA. He's your guy.

Dayn Perry: My vote right now would go to PCA. He's got power and value on the bases, and he's not just the best defensive center fielder in baseball but perhaps the best fielder at any position in baseball. That said, Ohtani, barring setback, should soon return to the mound. If he pitches well down the stretch while also continuing to produce at the plate, then he'll re-enter the discussion. I'm also keeping one eye on Jacob Misiorowski, who could be on his way to one of the best pitcher seasons of the current era. For now, it's PCA, but the race is far from decided.

Matt Snyder: I'm definitely not one of those people who think you should just look at WAR and give the award to the player with the best figure. I thought Cal Raleigh had a case over Aaron Judge last season, for example, and WAR was heavily in favor of Judge. In looking at this case, however, I think that's where we need to lean on it. You've got similar hitting stats, while PCA is overwhelmingly more valuable on the bases. Then you've got a DH vs. a center fielder with monster defensive prowess. Then you've got 85 1⅓ dominant pitching innings vs. zero. It's difficult to square all of this up without either using your gut or leaning on WAR. PCA's gap there is significant. He's the pick.