RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Markets are pricing in 48% odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike as the next policy meeting wraps up on Sept. 16, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That's down from 54% odds a week ago, before the soft July jobs report.\r
Markets currently sees 76% odds of a rate hike by the end of 2026, with 31% odds of 50 basis points in rate hikes.\r
The Fed typically pays closer attention to the PCE price index than the CPI, because it's a broader measure of inflation and adjusts for consumer substitution. The core PCE price index showed 3.3% inflation in the year through June.\r
The CPI provides about 70% of the inputs for the\u00a0 core PCE price index, with the rest mainly derived from the producer price index, which will be out on Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. and could also influence the Fed's thinking.
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