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How El Niño's Record Ocean Warming Could Threaten US
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Record-high ocean temperatures combined with a strengthening El Niño could influence storms, rainfall and temperatures across the United States during the coming fall and winter, forecasters said.
The average sea-surface temperature across the oceans reached 21.1 degrees Celsius, or about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, on Saturday, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. That figure narrowly exceeds the previous daily record of 21.09 C, which was recorded in March 2024.
"The timing of the record is particularly notable," Copernicus said. "Global ocean temperatures are typically highest in March and April, following the austral summer, yet this record has been reached in August." The record also arrives as El Niño continues to develop across the tropical Pacific, with the Climate Prediction Center forecasting a greater than 90 percent chance of a strong event during fall and winter.
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that El Niño was a major contributor to the record as it covers a vast area of the Pacific, making records easier to topple when the climate pattern is active. He added that unusually high temperatures across the Atlantic also helped push the global average to a new high.
In an email sent to Newsweek on Tuesday, AccuWeather said the world's ocean reaching a new record represented another factor that could influence weather across North America into fall and winter.
Paul Pastelok, the company's lead long-range forecaster, said the potential consequences for North America would depend not only on the ocean record but also on how the widespread warmth interacts with El Niño.
"What we're watching closely is how all of this ocean warmth interacts with a strengthening El Niño," Pastelok said in the email. "That combination can have important implications on intensity of storm track, temperatures and precipitation patterns across the continent in the months ahead."
Warm ocean water increases evaporation, placing additional moisture into the atmosphere. At the same time, El Niño can alter the position and behavior of the jet stream, affecting where storms travel across North America. During a typical El Niño, the Southern U.S. can experience a more active storm track extending from California and the Southwest through the Gulf Coast and Southeast. If storms tap into the additional atmospheric moisture supplied by unusually warm oceans, some could produce heavier rain or snow, according to AccuWeather.
The outlet said California, the Southwest and other areas of the Southern U.S. could have more opportunities for precipitation during El Niño. Southern and eastern states could also encounter longer periods of cloudy weather during the colder months.
"Warm oceans don't guarantee more storms, but they can give storms more moisture to work with," Pastelok said. "The location and intensity of the jet stream and storm track will ultimately determine where that moisture goes and the rate that it falls."
AccuWeather said El Niño forms when parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific heat up beyond normal levels. Given the Pacific's vast reach, this added warmth can disrupt atmospheric patterns across distant parts of the world.
Its effects on North America are generally more apparent during the colder months: A typical El Niño winter can bring increased storm and precipitation opportunities to parts of the Southern U.S., while portions of the northern U.S. and southern Canada experience temperatures above historical averages, according to AccuWeather.
AccuWeather also cautioned that no two El Niño events produce identical results.
"You can't look at El Niño and automatically predict what the winter will be like in a specific city," Pastelok said. "But when an El Niño becomes particularly strong, it can become one of the major forces shaping the large-scale weather pattern across North America."
AccuWeather also said near-record-warm Atlantic waters could fuel tropical systems . However, a strengthening El Niño could counteract that influence by increasing disruptive wind shear, making it more difficult for storms to form and strengthen.
Forecasters expect this year's Atlantic season to be quieter than usual , in part because of the effects of El Niño.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Shakeema Edwards .
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