RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesI recently released my first batch of my favorite NFL win totals to bet for the 2026-27 season . A derivative futures market off of that one is whether or not a team will make the postseason, which is what I'll explore in this article.
I like trying to find some longer shots in these markets, where our preseason priors might end up being far off and the returns from our wagers can loom larger. I found three teams with some asymmetry worth exploiting.
Here are a few NFL playoff make/miss wagers that I like right now:
Los Angeles Rams to miss the playoffs (+350)
The Rams have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, and yet I am interested in their market to miss the playoffs entirely. So, what gives?
Among NFL teams, Los Angeles is one where injury risk looms the largest. A 37-year old Matthew Stafford came into last season with serious concerns about his back injuries, sitting out most of training camp and all of preseason, while getting multiple pain injections into his spine. While Stafford went on to nullify those concerns — playing in all 17 games and winning MVP — it doesn't change the fact that he's now a year older and still has a heightened injury possibility compared to other QBs. If Stafford got hurt, the Rams would have to rely on rookie first-round pick QB Ty Simpson.
Los Angeles funnels usage to its top skill position players — DaVante Adams and Puka Nacua — who also carry increased injury risk. Adams is 33 and entering his 13th year in the league, while Nacua is known for leaning into some massive contact and taking big hits (and has had some off-field issues this offseason ). Losing Stafford, Adams, or Nakua for any lengthy amount of time would be a huge concern.
Lastly, the NFC West is a brutal division. As mentioned, the Rams are the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, but they will have to knock off the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers (win total of 10.5). Winning the division will be tough, and then it comes down to earning a wild-card spot.
I can see this being a "year from hell" for the Rams and one where fading them was the best decision.
New England Patriots to miss the playoffs (+150)
Last season, New England had the second-easiest projected strength of schedule based on forecasted win totals. After winning the AFC East, and making it all the way to the Super Bowl, it's easy to say they clearly took advantage of that easy schedule. However, finishing in first place draws much stiffer competition the following season.
Some of the out-of-division games this year for the Patriots includes a Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks, playing the NFC North (Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikings), and matchups against the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Jaguars and Steelers. That is a vastly different class of opponents than last season.
Drake Maye also put together a pair of unsustainable and non-correlated stats that I expect to regress. Maye had the league's highest completion rate in the NFL at 72%, and he also boasted the highest average yards per pass attempt at 8.9. It is remarkable to be the leader in both of these categories.
My NBA comparison would be saying it is like Stephen Curry having the highest field goal percentage in the league, while also taking the most 3-pointers. If Maye regresses a bit in completion rate, most likely due to fewer completions on deeper passes, the Patriots' explosive play rate drops and expected points falls off. As a result, their record takes a hit.
New England is my second fade team in preseason playoff futures.
Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs (+225)
The sharp betting community having an affinity for the Falcons is an annual preseason NFL futures tradition.
For the third year in a row, they are going to be preseason darlings that take steam across win totals, division odds, and playoff bets — and I am going back to the well again. What I am most excited about is the additions of QB Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Kevin Stefanski. I think these are both material upgrades over Michael Penix Jr. and Raheem Morris from a year ago.
Tua has always thrived when having a pass-catching running back in the flats, and a tight end to open the middle of the field — Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts fit the bill. He also has a top-end red zone target in wide receiver Drake London. I see this unit as complementary collective unit, which will raise the individual talent level of each player.
The Falcons also have a soft and winnable division in the NFC South. Last year the Panthers made the playoffs with an 8-9 record because they owned the tiebreakers over the Falcons and Buccaneers, who also finished at 8-9. A third-place finish for Atlanta due to those tiebreakers last season also makes this season’s schedule more manageable.
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