RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe 2026 PGA TOUR season concludes this week anticlimactically with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. After using a "starting strokes" format from 2019-24 that no one liked — not the fans nor the golfers — this is the second year all 30 guys in the TOUR Championship field will start at even-par.
Fortunately, new PGA TOUR commissioner Brian Rolapp announced a new postseason format earlier this week that will start in 2028. The top 90 players will compete in a final stroke-play event (the first round of the playoffs) before the top 32 advance to a two-week, match-play TOUR Championship.
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Designed by the legend Donald Ross, East Lake is a 7,455-yard, par-70 that has hosted the TOUR Championship every year since 2004. It is a driver-heavy layout with wide fairways, long approach shots and fast Bermuda greens, rewarding players who can bomb it off the tee and create birdie looks with their irons.
This has been a nightmare season for me betting on golf. I've donked off -50.94 units (u) in 2026, finished 4,133rd out of 5,297 entries in the Race for the Mayo Cup (one-and-done league) and I've only hit one outright: Nico Echavarria at the Cognizant Classic (+5900).
That said, I'm trying to minimize the loss and end the season on a high note by backing these three dudes.
The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇺🇸 Chris Gotterup +2654 (0.75u) and Top-10 with ties +124 (1u), both at Kalshi
🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3200 at DraftKings (0.63u) and Top-10 with ties +146 at Kalshi (1u)
🇺🇸 Russell Henley +3500 (0.57u) and Top-10 with ties +167 (1u), both at Kalshi
I love Gotterup's price because, as I wrote last week , his game travels. His four wins over the last 13 months have been at different types of courses and conditions: 2025 Genesis Scottish Open, Sony Open in Hawaii, WM Phoenix Open in Arizona, and the John Deere Classic in Illinois.
East Lake is a driver-heavy course that favors distance over accuracy and has easy Bermuda greens, according to Betsperts Golf .
Well, Gotterup ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) and second in driving distance over the last 30 rounds. He's picked up more than eight strokes on the greens last week in a T4 finish at the BMW Championship, and Bermuda is his best putting surface.
Ultimately, we are getting such a good price on Gotterup because he's not as popular as the names ahead of him on the oddsboard, such as Tommy Fleetwood (+1900), Patrick Cantlay (+1700) and Ludvig Åberg (+1450). Yet, Gotterup is playing better than all of them, hence the value.
Hideki let me down last week by tying for 28th at the BMW Championship when I bet him outright (+3000) and to finish in the top 10.
Nonetheless, Matsuyama is getting a better price this week at Kalshi in a field with 20 fewer golfers, and he is third in my model at Betsperts Golf behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Gotterup.
My model includes stats for East Lake and comparable course history, putting on Bermuda greens, SG: OTT, approach shots from 200+ yards, birdie-or-better rate, etc. Over the last 24 rounds, Hideki is second in this field for total scoring, SG: T2G and SG: Ball-striking (driving and approach), per Betsperts Golf .
Matsuyama’s short-game held him back last week at the BMW, but he gained strokes with his driver for a seventh straight tournament and with his irons for a fourth straight, according to DataGolf.com.
Driving has been the biggest weakness in Hideki's game, and I'm expecting his short-game to bounce back because he is a wizard around the green.
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Granted, Matsuyama's TOUR Championship history is nothing to write home about (his best finish was T4 in 2018). But the 2021 Masters champion is knocking on the door, and this number is too good to pass up.
This is a "good number" for a few reasons.
First, Henley is a native Georgian who played college golf at the University of Georgia, so he’s familiar with East Lake’s agronomy and playing conditions, including Atlanta's hot, sticky summer weather. The Georgia Bulldog has gained strokes on the greens in five consecutive starts and Bermuda is his best putting surface.
Henley has also finished higher on the leaderboard in the last three TOUR Championships: T14 in 2023, T4 in 2024, and T2 last year. Per DataGolf.com, he’s gained strokes across the board (driving, approach, chipping and putting) in the last two TOUR Championships and tee-to-green (driving, approach and around-the-green) in the last three.
Finally, Henley is underrated and playing better than several guys with shorter odds. He won the Charles Schwab Challenge in May and hasn’t missed the cut in his seven starts since, which includes a T9 at the British Open.
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark , and check out my "OutKick Bets Podcast" for more betting content and random rants.
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