RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 3 sourcesBOSTON — Late Saturday night, the Red Sox sent lefty starter Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals in exchange for infielder Curtis Mead.
Here are six quick thoughts on the deal:
1) The Red Sox had better be right about their projections for Mead.
Mead is now with his fifth organization, after time with Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Washington and now the Red Sox. It wasn’t until this year that he broke out and established himself as a regular, everyday contributor.
Three-plus months of good production is a pretty small sample size, and if it turns out his performance this year is something of an outlier, the Red Sox are in trouble.
That said, Craig Breslow maintains that some adjustments to Mead’s set-up and hand placement early this season produced the uptick in production and that the Sox believe it’s sustainable.
For Breslow’s sake, it had better be.
2) The timing of the deal suggests the Red Sox are far from done.
The majority of deals done at the deadline are executed the day of the deadline itself or a day before. This one came with more than a week to go.
That suggests a few things. First, Breslow isn’t close to being done, but wanted to make sure he added at least one contributor before things start becoming chaotic next weekend. He didn’t want to be squeezed out, so he jumped the line ahead of time.
Also, it reveals how much value the Sox are placing on every game in a very competitive American League wild card chase. Breslow went out of his way to note that the Sox like the advantage of having him for an additional seven or eight games ahead of deadline. Every day counts in the crowded playoff chase.
3) The Sox are sacrificing some infield defense to make this work.
The plan is for Mead to (mostly) play second base here, allowing Caleb Durbin to remain at third, where he’s excelled. That part makes sense.
But Mead is not highly rated when it comes to defensive metrics, regardless of where he plays. He had a -9 outs above average at third base and is -2 in defensive runs saved at the position.
The numbers are slightly better at second, though he’s had limited exposure there in the big leagues.
Bottom line: Mead is, at best, a league-average defender at second, where the Sox have him slotted. He’s here for his bat, first and foremost.
4) The middle of the infield is pretty crowded long-term.
If Mead is the regular second baseman for the foreseeable future, he’s going to box out a number of others. The Sox currently have (deep breath): Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer, Anthony Seigler, Tsung-Che Cheng, Romy Gonzalez, Andruw Monasterio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all capable of playing shortstop and/or second base and there’s not going to be room for all of them.
That gives interim manager Chad Tracy a slew of options on a daily basis, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Mead’s arrival.
And that doesn’t begin to take into account shortstop and top prospect Franklin Arias, recently promoted to Triple A.
5) Finally, the Red Sox are at least a little better balanced with their lineup.
Tracy wasn’t ready to commit to a spot in the order for Mead, but suggested he’ll be somewhere in the upper half of the lineup, depending on matchups.
But it wasn’t that long ago that Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela were the only formidable righthanded bats in the team’s lineup. Thanks to Durbin’s offensive turnaround, that number had recently increased and now Mead’s arrival — coupled with the return of traditional lefty-masher Gonzalez – has improved the attack.
The Sox have been better offensively during the last 30 or so games, including how they’ve fared at Fenway. With a pull-happy power bat like Mead, that will only get better.
6) The list of young starting pitchers Breslow has dealt off in the last year or so continues to grow.
In no particular order, the Red Sox have traded Wikelman Gonzalez, Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, Blake Aita, Yhoiker Fajardo, Luis Perales, David Sandlin and Brandon Clarke in the last 15 months.
Of those, for now, only Harrison has pitched well enough to give the Red Sox pause for regret. That could change, of course, especially given the relative youth of some of the above pitchers, some of whom (Fitts and Clarke to name two) have dealt with injuries.
Self-scouting is a key element for successful teams. Knowing which prospects and young players you can afford to give up is a critical part of successful front office.
It will take time to see if the Red Sox made the right calls.
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