RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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UFC 330 goes down this Saturday from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. Two title fights top the card, with Ian Machado Garry challenging for Islam Makhachev's welterweight title and Mackenzie Dern defending the women's strawweight championship against Gillian Robertson .
Makhachev is making the second defense of the title he won from Jack Della Madalena after vacating the lightweight championship in search of new challenges. He faces the challenge of Garry, who has only suffered one defeat inside the Octagon.
Dern is also making the first defense of her title. Dern defeated Virna Jandiroba in October 2025, capturing the vacant championship after a turbulent career full of ups and downs. Robertson also had some rocky moments early in her UFC career, but she enters Saturday riding a five-fight winning streak that has earned her an opportunity to capture UFC gold for the first time in her career.
With so much intriguing action -- and two title fights -- set for UFC 330, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in the event, including at sportsbooks. With that in mind, we've once again looked at all the event's main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 329, we are sitting just below .500 at 18-19 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend with the goal of getting back in the black, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
I don't fully understand how these odds are laid out. The odds suggest a Ribovics knockout is the most likely way for the fight to finish at -185. Ribovics has one stoppage victory in seven UFC fights. While that was a spectacular head kick knockout of Terrance McKinney , that's not a record where I want to take -185 odds on a knockout win. Barboza has been knocked out in his career, but he's a fairly tough fighter and not someone I believe has a weak chin. It feels as though taking the fight to go past the midway point is a solid play given the fighters involved and Ribovics as a heavy -650 favorite.
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In a way, this is a principal play. Abdul-Malik has looked very vulnerable in his UFC career, so seeing him listed at -675 is jarring. Yes, Stoltzfus is 3-7 in the UFC, and no, that is not a good record, but he's a tough, wild fighter who gave Kelvin Gastelum a very tough fight last September. Abdul-Malik has been dropped several times in his UFC career. He was bullied and stopped by Yousri Belgaroui in his most recent outing. Abdul-Malik likely wins the fight, to be clear, but Stoltzfus is a live dog with the kind of style that can catch Abdul-Malik in exchanges. The odds are simply too wide, and it makes a play on the big underdog a good one.
Since dropping a split decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut, Fernandes has gone on a 3-0 run. The most recent of those wins saw Fernandes blast Harry Hardwick with leg kicks for the stoppage. Fernandes is a good striker with fantastic leg kicks and solid defensive skills. Turner is long, rangy and dangerous, but he isn't always defensively responsible. In a fight I expect to be primarily fought on the feet, that gives Fernandes a strong advantage, as well as opportunities to land those blistering leg kicks. As Fernandes breaks down Turner's legs, the head will open up and allow for more opportunities to mix up his strikes. Take the underdog odds in this one.
In nine fights over the past five years, Dern has one win by stoppage. Robertson has more finishes, but all in fights that were not at the level of what she'll be facing in Dern. Part of what has led to so few stoppages for Dern has been her leaning on striking rather than grappling, an odd choice for one of the most decorated female jiu-jitsu players in the world. Dern has never scored a TKO or KO victory in her career and this feels like a fight that will likely be contested mainly on the feet. Robertson's grappling is solid enough that she isn't immediately in danger if the fight does hit the floor. This feels like a fight that hits the final bell, but rather than taking the fight going the distance (-150), we'll play the safer over line on this one.
As a reminder, a point spread in MMA betting means that if a fight goes to decision, you total the scorecards for each fighter and then apply the spread. So, if Makhachev wins 48-47 across the board, the score would be 144-141. Add the +9.5 for Garry and you would have a winning bet. A stoppage win or loss would also count, so you're betting on Garry to lose by less than 9.5 on the combined scorecards, win on the cards or win by knockout, submission or disqualification.
This is just Makhachev's second fight at welterweight and Garry is a big, long 170-pound fighter who uses his reach very well. Makhachev has decent striking, but he's likely heading into this fight with a grappling-first mindset. To get inside, Makhachev is going to have to navigate distance and then not only take Garry down, but keep him there. I believe Makhachev will be able to do that enough to get the win, but Garry can likely do well enough to steal at least one round. If Garry can win just one round and not get finished, assuming no 10-8 rounds for Makhachev, the final scores would be 147-138. Adding the +9.5 spread means a Garry bet would cash with his total at 147.5. That seems like a safe bet to place on a talented, natural welterweight like Garry.
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