RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Where I can, I'm trying to follow CBS Sports HQ around on its trips to NFL training camps, and it was at Bengals camp in Cincinnati on Monday so I'll take a look at Joe Burrow and Co. today. Bettors are extremely high on Burrow personally in what seems like a make-or-break season for him in terms of health, and it's definitely that type of year for embattled head coach Zac Taylor.
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Many around the league were surprised the Bengals kept Taylor after a third straight year missing the playoffs in 2025 and slipping to 6-11, the club's worst mark since Taylor's second season in 2020. But that Burrow played just eight games due to yet another injury seemed to give Taylor a pass for one more season. In Burrow's absence, Cincinnati won just one game.
In his limited action, Burrow did look very good, and bettors are all over the former Heisman Trophy winner to become the first Bengals player to win NFL MVP since fellow QB Boomer Esiason in 1988. At BetMGM , he is now priced as the +900 third-favorite, Burrow ranks No. 1 in tickets at 13.9% on the MVP prop and No. 2 in handle (13.3%), and the book is most exposed on him.
Cincinnati became the fifth team in league history to miss three straight postseasons after making back-to-back conference title games. Burrow is the only QB ever with a passer rating of at least 100 and zero playoff starts in a three-season span with a minimum of 30 starts; Burrow has made 35 in that span. Actually, Burrow's career is starting to mimic that of Dan Marino's. In Year 2, both lost in the Super Bowl and in Year 3 both lost in the AFC title game. In Years 4-6, both missed the playoffs in each.
We know how good Burrow is when healthy, and we can't always blame him for being injured. Burrow has taken 242 total sacks since 2020, the most in the NFL (regular season and playoffs), and the Bengals have ranked outside the top 20 in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade in all seasons of Burrow's career.
The former No. 1 overall pick is surrounded by one of the best 1-2 receiving punches in the NFL in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins . Burrow is the +700 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards and +500 leader for TD passes. He is given Over/Under totals of 4,000.5 yards and 32.5 TDs. To have at least 400 yards passing in one game, he is -130. Burrow has done that seven times.
Clearly, the big question in Cincinnati is a defense that allowed the most rushing yards per game (147.1) and yards per play in the league last year (6.2) and the third-most points (28.9 PPG). That yards per play number was the worst of any team in the league since the 2022 Lions . The Cincinnati scoring defense has gotten worse in each of the past four seasons.
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While the offense is largely back intact, the defense was definitely addressed in the offseason with the trade for tackle Dexter Lawrence and free agent signings of tackle Jonathan Allen and safety Bryan Cook , among a few others – although surprisingly coordinator Al Golden returns for a second year. Lawrence, who cost the No. 10 overall pick in the draft, and Allen add about 640 pounds and 810 tackles up front, and both can get to the quarterback, too.
Meanwhile, Cook had the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate (5.7%) among all defensive backs with at least 75 tackles last season. Why is that important? The 2025 Bengals secondary could not tackle, allowing 7.0 yards after catch per reception – the most by any team in the past 20 years. Cincinnati safety Geno Stone had the fifth-highest missed tackle rate (18.1%) among those DBs last year but is now with Buffalo.
To simply make the playoffs this season, the Bengals are -190, with No at +155, and their Over/Under win total is 10.5 (Over +115, Under -140). The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts them for 9.0 wins and a 42.9% shot at the playoffs. The team has the third-easiest schedule in the league by opponents' combined 2025 winning percentage (.450). Cincinnati is -3.5 for Week 1 at home vs. Tampa Bay.
I see something along the lines of 10-7 and a wild card spot, but the Bengals better win the opener with trips to Houston and Pittsburgh the following two weeks or Taylor might not make it until October.
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