RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe Cincinnati Bengals were given the second-highest odds to win the AFC North this season, with ESPN Analytics giving them a 32.5% chance to win the division for the first time since 2022. The Baltimore Ravens took the top spot with a 54.2% chance, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers at 12.2%. The Cleveland Browns came in last with just a 1.1% chance to capture the AFC North title.
Besides the Bengals, each team in the division will have a new head coach at the helm in 2026, making for an intriguing season across the AFC North.
Baltimore boasts one of the NFL's deepest rosters, led by Lamar Jackson and supported by playmakers on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jesse Minter inherits a team built on offensive firepower, defensive stars and continuity, making the Ravens ESPN's clear favorite to capture the AFC North.
Mike McCarthy took over for longtime head coach Mike Tomlin, but Pittsburgh is still expected to have a physical defense and a tough, run-first identity. While the Steelers have talent throughout the roster for what is expected to be Aaron Rodgers' final season, questions on offense leave ESPN viewing them a tier behind the Ravens and Bengals entering 2026.
Then there's Cleveland, which enters the season having never won the AFC North and owning by far the lowest chance to win the division in the first year of Todd Monken's tenure. There are simply too many holes and question marks on the Browns' roster for ESPN to rank them any higher.
With the other three teams in the division entering a new era under new head coaches, the pressure is on Zac Taylor. He returns with one of the league's most talented offenses and a revamped defense that could make significant strides in 2026. Joe Burrow has said this is the most complete roster he has been a part of in Cincinnati, and the time is now for the Bengals to compete.
Joe Burrow is bullish on this Bengals’ roster: “We have everything we need.” Bengals rookies report for training camp today. Burrow made these comments last month. pic.twitter.com/L6Iel1LhVc
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) July 25, 2026 I think ESPN's projected order of finish is correct, but I would alter the percentages slightly. I'd have the Ravens at 44%, the Bengals at 37%, the Steelers at 18% and the Browns at 1%.
Based on 2025 winning percentage, both Baltimore and Cincinnati have some of the easiest schedules in the NFL, setting the stage for what could be a highly entertaining race for the division. If both teams perform as expected, the Week 17 matchup at Paycor Stadium could decide who wins the AFC North in 2026.
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