RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Here's the setup heading into Wednesday's Fed meeting: Economists polled by FactSet expect the central bank to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
The futures market isn't so sure. As of Tuesday, it puts the odds of a rate hike this week at around 30%.
Based on current evidence and commentary, anybody hoping for a rate cut at some point in 2026 is probably going to be disappointed. The focus instead has become when the first rate hike is coming. It could be as early as this week, although some market watchers don't see it.
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