RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democratic turnout surged in the primary elections in several key states like Georgia , Michigan and Texas ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
As the midterms inch closer, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of winning key races across the country.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating has fueled Democrats’ hopes of expanding the battleground. Democrats also see signs of heightened enthusiasm among their voters, including higher primary turnout in key states, though some experts do not view primary turnout as predictive.
Across the board, turnout has risen during the Trump era as more and more Americans are engaged in politics. Numerous factors can influence primary turnout, including voter motivation, as well as the number of contentious primaries each party has; if one party has more contested primaries, they may see higher turnout.
So far, Democrats are seeing a rise in turnout in several key states they are hoping to win in November.
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek it’s normally difficult to conclude much about a general election based on primary turnout.
“However, it does appear that Democrats are enjoying more intense interest and enthusiasm among their primary voters than Republicans. This reflects the heightened media and public interest generated by the candidates on the Left on the Democratic side, and some ambivalence and uncertainty on the Republican side,” he said.
It’s still an “open question” whether that enthusiasm gap will extend to the general election, he said.
“Whether that enthusiasm gap extends to the general election is an open question. Republicans may become motivated to counter the Leftward drift of the Democrats. But in any case, none of the other indicators suggest anything good for Republicans in the mid-terms,” he said.
Democrats’ high primary turnout does signal enthusiasm among their voters, but that’s something they’ll need to maintain through the general election, Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek on Wednesday.
“Democrats are angry and highly motivated to take on not just Trump, but many want to take on the Democratic establishment in DC,” he said.
He noted that Democrats may still have a difficult time working to “heal the wounds” of some of their most contested primaries, and that may be a more difficult task in cases where moderates win because progressive voters “care more about ideological purity than compromise.”
Republicans may be facing lower turnout because they have fewer competitive races, and they may be less enthusiastic about their chances in November, he said.
“Two key variables tend to drive turnout: the perceived closeness of the race and the perceived importance of the office. For Democrats, these races are extremely important because they want to nominate candidates to the general election who will take on the Trump administration,” he said.
Some politics experts have been skeptical that there is any connection between turnout in a primary and the eventual results of a general election, especially as uncontested or uncompetitive primaries can drive down turnout.
Nate Silver wrote in a Substack post that Democratic turnout surged in Texas earlier this year but noted he is not one to believe that necessarily means Democrats are favored to flip the seat.
“I’m not a big believer in primary turnout being predictive of general election outcomes, but this is nevertheless a big number for Democrats in a red state,” he wrote.
Republican National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek that Republicans are “confident voters will turn out to protect and expand our majorities” as Trump is “barnstorming the country touting his America First agenda that’s lowered taxes, secured our border, and made our streets safe.”
“It’s common sense versus communism at the ballot box this November, and our candidates are on offense to ensure Americans reject Democrats’ plans to turn our country into a third-world dystopia,” she said.
A Democratic National Committee spokesperson told Newsweek that primary turnout “shows that our grassroots organizing is paying off across the country.”
“At a time when voters are ready to turn the page on Republicans’ harmful cost-spiking agenda, Americans are energized, fired up, and ready to elect Democrats who will make life more affordable, protect healthcare, tackle Republicans’ corruption, and put working families first,” the spokesperson said.
The nation’s latest battleground is going to be the site of some of the most competitive primaries of the midterms. Although it backed Trump by about 2 points in 2024, Democrats are hopeful about their chances in the state this time around.
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is up for reelection, while the governor race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, and Republican businessman Rick Jackson is viewed as a toss-up.
Both parties had highly competitive governor primaries in May, but Democrats saw higher turnout on their side. In the Republican primary, there were a total of 933,817 votes cast, according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office. That compares to 1,081,811 votes cast on the Democratic side.
That’s a notable shift from the 2018 midterms, the last time both parties had a primary in the governor race, when 607,441 votes were cast in the GOP primary and 555,089 votes were cast in the Democratic primary.
Democrats are also hoping to make a comeback in Iowa, a former swing state that has shifted toward Republicans over recent cycles. Iowa backed Trump by 13 points in 2024, but it backed former President Barack Oba...
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