RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 4 sourcesThe Tampa Bay Rays are acquiring Freddy Peralta from the Mets , a source with knowledge of the trade confirmed to USA TODAY Sports. The Athletic reported the deal first.
The Rays strike after the missing out on the biggest starter available. The Rays had to the Tigers about "responsibly" acquiring Tarik Skubal, but pivoted after the two-time Cy Young winner went to the Los Angeles Dodgers .
They are betting on a fixer-upper and have the track record of doing so. The Rays have a long history of getting pitchers back on track, and that was the condition attached to Peralta at the deadline.
How Mets acquired Freddy Peralta
The Mets acquired Peralta on Jan. 21 from Milwaukee, along with right-hander Tobias Myers, for right-hander Brandon Sproat and shortstop Jett Williams. Sproat and Williams were ranked among the top 100 prospects in baseball. It was the price for a front-line starter, and the Mets paid it expecting to be a contender.
Freddy Peralta stats with Mets
Through his July 26 outing, Peralta has a 4.99 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP over 22 starts. He has 113 strikeouts in 113 ⅔ innings pitched and 48 walks.
He was 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA after beating Atlanta on June 14. Then he went 0-4 with a 7.93 ERA over seven starts, including giving up 10 runs in 2 ⅔ innings against Philadelphia on June 20. He failed to finish five innings in four of five outings in July.
Peralta ranks in the 10th percentile in pitching run value after finishing in the 97th a year ago. His strikeout rate fell to 22.4% from 28.2%. Hitters made contact on 81.7% of his pitches in the zone, the most of his career.
Why the Rays wanted Freddy Peralta
Hitters are not crushing the ball against Peralta. They are hitting it weaker this season than at any point in his career, and by Baseball Savant's measurements, he ranks better than 84% of major league pitchers at avoiding hard, well-struck contact. Savant's math says he should have an ERA around 3.82, more than a run better than his actual number. Some of that gap is bad luck and bad defense behind him.
Why Tampa Bay should worry about Freddy Peralta
He has stopped missing bats. Peralta struck out 28% of the hitters he faced last year. This season it is 22%. Batters are making contact on pitches in the strike zone more than ever against him. His changeup, which was one of the nastiest pitches in baseball a year ago, has gone from elite to nearly worthless by the same measurements. He is also throwing fewer strikes and falling behind hitters more often.
What is next for Freddy Peralta
Peralta is making $8 million and becomes a free agent at the end of the season. He was expected to look for a deal in the neighborhood of what Max Fried got from the Yankees, eight years at $218 million. That is unlikely now.
David Stearns traded for Freddy Peralta twice
David Stearns knew Freddy Peralta better than anyone in the game. He was the Brewers general manager who shipped Adam Lind to Seattle in December 2015 for three arms nobody had heard of, including Peralta. Stearns extended him in Milwaukee in 2020, five years and $15.5 million with club options for 2025 and 2026. Then after becoming the head of the Mets' baseball operation, he traded for him again.
It hasn't gone as well in Queens.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Freddy Peralta traded to Tampa Bay Rays
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