RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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To me, the team that will be most fascinating to watch ahead of Monday's MLB trade deadline is the San Diego Padres . One player who is available, if the front office opts to take the rare seller's tack, is ace Michael King . The right-handed could be making his final start for the club Tuesday night at home against the Colorado Rockies.
It's a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch from Petco Park. The consensus MLB odds list San Diego as a -224 money line favorite, with Colorado at +184 and the Over/Under for total runs scored set at 8. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has the Over hitting in 56% of its simulations for a 'B' grade. If you're interested in MLB betting , you can check out the model for more Rockies vs. Padres picks from the simulations and our experts.
The No. 1 guy that you hear most trade rumors about involving the Padres is unhittable closer Mason Miller , and he's really part of the problem in San Diego. By that, I mean general manager AJ Preller has been one of the most aggressive buy guys in recent years trying to get the Padres that first World Series title. It hasn't worked, and now the team's farm system is utterly gutted because of all those prospects Preller sent out for guys like Juan Soto (a few years ago) or Miller, who was acquired last year in a blockbuster from the Athletics .
While Miller has been sensational, it was a massive overpay considering the package sent to Sacramento was led by shortstop Leo De Vries , who is now ranked as the No. 2 overall prospect in the sport. Boy, could the Padres use him in their system right now because the big-league club seems to be regressing, and it's definitely an aging roster. Dealing Miller would not get back someone like De Vries but would help rebuild the system. However, USA's Bob Nightengale has reported that team likely will keep Miller but move King and others.
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What San Diego does this week might determine Preller's decisions, as the team has zero shot to win the NL West – it led the division for a while early in the season before the Dodgers woke up – but is only 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot. The team could have a good week, with all five games at home vs. the two NL West doormats in the Rockies and Giants .
The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Friars a 22.6% shot at the playoffs, while DraftKings gives them odds of +230, which equates to 30.3%. But how worth it is it to just get that last spot and then go on the road and probably lose in the Wild Card Round like last year at Wrigley Field?
King (6-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) was part of a package acquired from the Yankees for Soto in December 2023, and he re-signed with San Diego this past offseason as a free agent on a three-year, $75 million deal. That's pretty reasonable these days for a solid pitcher like King.
The thing is, though, that he can opt out after this season, and perhaps he might want to do that if the free agent market for starting pitching is weak behind Tarik Skubal . That would increase the chances the Padres would decide to move King. That the 31-year-old has playoff experience only adds to his value.
King has been terrific in July with a 1.96 ERA but only 1-0 in four starts (team is 1-3) because of a lack of run support. His 3.00 runs of support per nine innings is the lowest of any qualified starter in the majors this year. If he dominates Colorado tonight, I'd sure sell high.
King has not faced the Rockies in 2026 but had one of the starts of his life against them last year at Petco when King threw a complete-game shutout, still the only one of his career. The model forecasts him at 5.4 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 4.6 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs for this one.
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There's no doubt Colorado will be a seller over the next week, although the Rockies don't have much any teams would want, other than All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman , who is reportedly off limits. If you haven't been paying attention, Goodman is right there in the MLB home run race with 31, three behind leader Yordan Alvarez of Houston. The Yankees apparently covet Goodman, so maybe they overpay to get something done.
The Rockies probably couldn't get a bag of baseballs for tonight's starting pitcher, 34-year-old journeyman Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.53 ERA). That ERA is among the worst in the Show among qualified starters, and the losses are one shy of tying for the most. Me just sitting here all season and I'm worth 0.0 WAR for the Rockies. Lorenzen has been worth -1.0. Batters are hitting .327 off him, which is just crazy.
Lorenzen has pitched in relief once this year, and that was his lone outing against the Padres, with a scoreless inning at Petco on April 11. The model has him at 5.4 innings, 4.2 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 3.0 earned runs. I think I might have to ponder some hitting prop on San Diego's Xander Bogaerts considering his career 2.167 OPS vs. Lorenzen at 6-for-6 with a double and a walk.
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I don't see the Rockies doing much offensively against King, and that San Diego bullpen is fully ready to go -- I also obviously don't expect the Padres to bat in the bottom of the ninth so that's one fewer half-inning to worry about via the alt total. Typically benign hitting conditions at Petco Park. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .
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