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See the full story · 4 sourcesESPN makes bold Caitlin Clark, Fever championship prediction after All-Star break originally appeared on The Sporting News .
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ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever the best chance of any WNBA team to win the 2026 championship. Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever may sit fifth in the WNBA standings, but one prominent projection believes they are the team everyone else should be chasing.
ESPN Analytics released its updated championship probabilities following the All-Star break, and Indiana landed in the top spot. The Fever were given a league-best 24.1% chance to win the 2026 WNBA championship. The reigning champion Las Vegas Aces followed closely at 22.6%, while the first-place Minnesota Lynx ranked third at 15.5%.
That projection immediately caused a stir because Indiana entered the break at 17-10, trailing four teams in the standings. The Fever have not yet been the league’s most consistent team, but ESPN’s model sees several reasons to believe Clark and her teammates could be the most dangerous group in the playoffs.
Fever’s historic offense drives ESPN projection
Indiana has developed into the WNBA’s most explosive offensive team. The Fever lead the league with a 116.1 offensive rating, powered by an imposing trio of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston.
Crunch time in the W! Entering the second half, ESPN Analytics has the league chasing the highest scoring team in Indiana and the reigning champs Las Vegas; giving those two the best chances to win the title this season 🏀 pic.twitter.com/63iyAGvUBp
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) July 26, 2026 Clark entered the All-Star break averaging 21.0 points and 7.9 assists per game. She ranks among the league leaders in both categories and remains the engine of Indiana’s high-powered attack. Mitchell has been even more productive as a scorer, averaging 23.3 points per game. She provided another reminder of her offensive ability by scoring a game-high 28 points during Saturday’s WNBA All-Star Game in Chicago.
Boston has also taken an important step forward. The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks while anchoring Indiana in the paint. Her improved outside shooting has made an already difficult offense even harder to defend. Opponents must account for Clark’s exceptional range, Mitchell’s quickness and Boston’s ability to score inside or step away from the basket.
The Fever’s defense remains a concern. Indiana ranks ninth with a 109.0 defensive rating, but its offensive firepower gives the team a chance to overcome difficult stretches at the other end.
MORE : Caitlin Clark reveals why she turned down WNBA All-Stars’ shoe requests
Why Fever rank ahead of Lynx, Aces and Wings
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index evaluates more than a team’s win-loss record. The model accounts for game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, rest, game location and preseason expectations. That helps explain why Indiana can rank first in championship probability despite being fifth in the standings.
The projection sparked plenty of debate, particularly because the Lynx entered the break with a league-best 22-6 record. The Golden State Valkyries , Aces and Dallas Wings also remained ahead of the Fever. Fans went crazy over ESPN’s prediction in the comments, with some pointing to Indiana’s unmatched offensive ceiling and others questioning how the Fever could be favored over teams with stronger records.
Indiana’s recent form strengthens the model’s case. The Fever have won seven of their last 10 games, including three consecutive victories entering the break. They also reached the semifinals last season and pushed the eventual champion Aces to a deciding fifth game without a healthy Clark available for the postseason.
With Clark back in the lineup, expectations have understandably climbed. Indiana still has plenty to prove during the second half, particularly on defense. However, ESPN’s projection makes one thing clear: The Fever are no longer viewed as an emerging team simply hoping to make noise.
They are viewed as the WNBA championship favorite.
More WNBA news:
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Sophie Cunningham points out potential problem with LeBron James’ 76ers superteam
Aliyah Boston sends heartfelt message after WNBA guard suffers season-ending injury
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