RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The state of the global diesel market is getting even more precarious as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran crisis squeeze supply from multiple angles.
Why it matters: Diesel prices ripple through economies here and abroad, affecting shipping costs, construction and plenty in between.
The average U.S. price is up 44 cents over the last month to $5.32 per gallon, compared to $3.71 a year ago, per AAA.
However, during the Iran crisis, it hasn't hit the all-time high of $5.82 per gallon that AAA recorded in mid-June of 2022.
Driving the news: A new S&P Global Energy analysis unpacks the ingredients behind the "big squeeze" in global refined product markets.
S&P estimates that refineries worldwide processed 7.5 million barrels per day less crude last month than the same period in 2025.
A separate International Energy Agency analysis out this morning also tracks an extremely steep drop in how much crude that refineries are processing.
Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios
State of play: Renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are further restricting supply after a period of optimism about normalizing flows.
Middle East refineries are processing much less as capacity remains "physically impaired, logistically stranded, or operationally unable to restart with confidence," S&P states.
Russia's restrictions on diesel exports following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have removed another 10% of seaborne supplies from the market, and China's refinery activity remains "subdued."
By the numbers: Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia in July were 1.3 million barrels per day lower year-over-year, "equivalent to about 20% of global seaborne trade," IEA's monthly report this morning states.
"Diesel is the tightest market right now," Amrita Sen, founder of market intelligence firm Energy Aspects, tells Bloomberg TV.
Zoom in: In the U.S., the Energy Department's stats and analysis arm yesterday revised its diesel price estimates upward.
The Energy Information Administration sees retail prices averaging $4.85 per gallon in 2026, compared to $4.61 in last month's outlook.
It also slightly raised its 2027 forecast average to $4.07, up from $4.02.
The big picture: In the U.S., fuel accounts for roughly 20-25% of trucking companies' operating costs, according to the American Trucking Associations, a major trade group.
What we're watching: The U.S. has been exporting growing amounts of diesel to the thirsty global market, but S&P points out that U.S. refineries are running at 96% of capacity.
With the heart of hurricane season and traditional fall maintenance looming, the market's remaining buffers are very thin, the research and consulting firm notes.
And diesel and similar refinery products are used for heating in many countries. "I think we are underestimating just how tight diesel can be this winter," said Sen.
The bottom line: "The situation is not going away anytime soon and could very well get more expensive," Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger said in a note.
"Ukrainian drone production has been increasing exponentially, with Russian energy infrastructure a prime target," he writes.
"Unless there are big breakthroughs in the peace process around both conflicts, large amounts of diesel will remain shut in."
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