RESOLVING THE LEDGER
This is one outlet's own report from The Independent — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
See the full story · 12 sourcesThe US president has been sucked into a quagmire of his own making, with both sides refusing to budge on red lines in negotiations. James C. Reynolds looks at the numbers behind a conflict that may prove to be Trump’s greatest miscalculation
Bookmark Comments Go to comments Bookmark popover Removed from bookmarks
B arely a week after American bombs rained down across Iran , Donald Trump picked up the phone to a reporter at the New York Post .
“I have a plan for everything, OK?” the president snapped, after being asked about turmoil in the energy markets. “You’ll be very happy.”
At the time, Iran’s regime was reeling from the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli operation on 28 February. Oil prices surged as Tehran moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz , through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes each day.
Six months on, Trump is caught in a quagmire of his own making. Both sides continue to trade strikes, shipping through Hormuz has slowed to a trickle and the war is no closer to a resolution. Oil prices are still 25 per cent higher than in February and the US military continues to record casualties, while Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since he took office.
Despite his claim to have destroyed Iran’s military, analysts say it is damaged but remains intact. Meanwhile, control of Hormuz has given Tehran a vital piece of leverage, with consumers across the world facing hikes in energy prices.
The Independent has examined data that lays bare the astonishing cost of Trump’s war to the global economy, the wider Middle East, the US military and his own domestic popularity. Without a face-saving exit strategy, experts say, the US is at risk of “drifting towards a form of forever war” that could prove to be Trump’s greatest miscalculation.
More than 8,000 people across the Middle East have been killed since 28 February, according to an aggregate of local tallies. While both sides have scaled back strikes in recent months, casualty figures continue to grow.
According to the Iranian government, at least 3,468 Iranians had been killed by mid-April. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency put the figure at 3,636, including 1,701 civilians, in May.
As of this week, the Pentagon has tallied 14 US service member deaths and 417 injuries directly linked directly to its Operation Epic Fury. A further four have been killed in overseas operations since 7 July, while 341 have been injured, for a total of 18 deaths and 758 wounded. Another 60 injuries were listed just last week.
Civilians have been caught up in the conflict. The US military was accused of killing a young family with a 907kg bomb in renewed strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island at the end of July. An interim agreement to stop the fighting, signed in June, was repeatedly flouted by both sides before being scrapped entirely.
An Indian sailor was killed and eight others were injured when two oil tankers were struck by cruise missiles in the strait last month. And three sailors were reported to have been killed in US strikes in June. There have been more than 150 deaths recorded across the wider region linked to the conflict.
Iran’s grip of the Strait of Hormuz has sent ripples through the global economy by halting shipping and forcing up the cost of oil. Benchmark crude prices are still around $90 per barrel, up 25 per cent from $72 on the eve of the conflict. In the US, gasoline prices have risen by around 30 per cent over the past year.
Energy inflation has cost consumers $91.6bn as of 26 August, according to the Watson School of International and Public Affairs. They say the higher cost of gasoline has cost the average US household an additional $381.64 since the start of the war. The Center for American Progress estimates that, as of 20 August, the war has cost the average US household $1,200 in total.
The cost has also been felt in the UK, despite efforts to stay out of the conflict. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research assessed this month that the energy shock would take 0.3 per cent of GDP off the economy this year and 0.2 per cent the next. Real GDP will be £12.8bn lower than it was forecast to be prior to the war – equivalent to the budget of the Ministry of Justice.
British households are now bracing for higher bills after Ofgem raised the domestic energy price cap by four per cent this week and inflation hit 2.9 per cent. The Resolution Foundation think tank assessed in April that higher energy prices alone would leave the average British household £480 worse off this year than had the war not happened.
Trump’s popularity has sunk to a new low among voters as the war takes its toll. Just 33 per cent of Americans said they approved of the president’s performance in the White House so far, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded on Monday.
The survey found just 31 per cent of Americans support US military action against Iran, down from 37 per cent in March and driven by a fall in support from Republicans. Even some of Trump’s allies have jumped ship; the former US representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said last week the Republicans “could get smoked” in the November midterms, in part over broken trust around a promise of “no more foreign wars”.
Trump will be under pressure to show progress towards resolving the crisis and bringing down energy prices in the lead-up to the midterms, in which all seats in the House of Representatives will be contested, along with a third of the Senate. Following the 18 August primaries, polling showed the Democrats with a six-point lead.
Dr Lindsay Newman, associate fellow with Chatham House, told The Independent that Trump had taken lessons from the quick ousting of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro in January and misjudged a conflict with Iran.
“Iran was always going to be a much bigger and more complex proposition … Operation Epic Fury represents tactical success but strategic failing,” she said.
“Trump w...
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.