RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrats are facing an uphill battle to take back control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms, as polls show competitive races for Republican-held seats in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas with less than 100 days to go.
Historically, the midterms are viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid economic concerns tied to the cost of living and inflation. This has given Democrats hope about their chances of expanding the Senate battleground to flip more conservative states to win a majority in the midterm elections .
Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Newsweek , “Democrats like Troy Jackson and Josh Turek are the new faces of the Left’s socialist takeover, campaigning on an agenda to raise taxes, green-light reckless spending, and make life even less affordable for American families.”
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat, wrote in a statement that Democrats are “well-positioned” in the Senate.
“Across the map, we have strong Democratic candidates running formidable campaigns laser-focused on the issues that matter most to voters, from the affordability crisis that Republicans created to the health care access cliff Republicans built when they passed their billionaire tax giveaway bill one year ago,” she said.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and are eyeing four Democratic-held seats: those in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan, as well as Minnesota and New Hampshire, states he narrowly lost.
Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by about 7 points, and North Carolina, which he won by about 3 points, as top targets. No other GOP-held seats are up for grabs in states he either won by single digits or lost in 2024.
Even if Democrats hold all of their current seats and flip those two, they would still be held to a 51-49 minority, so they must win in double-digit Trump states to win a majority.
Because of that structural hurdle, Republicans have been viewed as the favorites to retain control of the Senate—but that is not seen as a certainty, as several recent polls have given Democrats a wide lead on the generic ballot .
The latest poll from Emerson College, for instance, gave Democrats an 11-point lead; a Fox News poll gave Democrats an 8-point lead. Democrats are hoping for such a lead in November that would put states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas in play.
As of Monday, prediction markets favored Republicans; they had a 55 percent chance of holding onto Senate control on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket. Their chances on Kalshi have narrowed over the past month; on June 27, Republicans had a 58 percent chance of retaining a Senate majority.
The following map displays what Kalshi shows for each Senate race that the Cook Political Report views as a toss-up or in its Lean or Likely categories. Of those states, Democrats are best-positioned in Georgia and North Carolina, while Republicans have their best likelihood in Nebraska, where an independent candidate is running.
Alaska voted for Trump in 2024 by 14 points and has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1964, so it’s been a reliably Republican state for decades. However, the candidacy of former Representative Mary Peltola, the only Democrat who has won statewide in recent years, has given the party hope about their chances of flipping the state .
Alaska has also given Republicans more narrow margins in recent cycles; Trump won it by 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016. Democrats lost the state by 14 points in 2012, 22 points in 2008, 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000.
The latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed Republican Senator Dan Sullivan leading Peltola by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 2 percent backing another candidate and 5 percent unsure. It surveyed 593 likely voters from June 15-29, 2026.
An Alaska Survey Research poll, however, showed Peltola with 49.4 percent to Sullivan’s 44.2 percent. It surveyed 1,393 likely voters from June 4-7, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is set to face Representative Mike Collins in the nation’s newest swing state in November. Collins won the GOP primary, but polls give Ossoff an advantage heading into the general election .
Trump’s 2-point victory in the key swing state gives Republicans belief that it could be a potential target, but Democrats believe Ossoff’s popularity and Trump’s low approval rating should keep the seat in their hands.
The latest surveys show Ossoff, also viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with a lead as the Cook Political Report has shifted the race to Lean Democrat.
An AARP poll found Ossoff leading Collins by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent. The poll was conducted on behalf of AARP by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican pollster, and Impact Research, a Democratic pollster. It surveyed 1,060 likely voters across Georgia from July 13-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up 4 points, 46.7 percent to 42.9 percent . It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A poll for Fox News put Ossoff's support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a 13-point margin in the competitive race. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27.
Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Democrat Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, whil...
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