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Obama's Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Three Races
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama have endorsed dueling candidates in three major races ahead of the 2026 midterm elections .
Obama and Trump are viewed as influential leaders in their respective parties and are clashing on critical races in Iowa and Texas in this year’s elections. The midterms will be a test of their sway over the electorate.
The endorsements will test whether Trump can motivate the more disengaged corners of his Republican base even when he is not on the ballot, and whether Obama can help Democrats win back voters who once cast ballots for him but have backed Republicans in recent election cycles.
Obama has so far supported three candidates this year—state Representative Josh Turek in Iowa’s Senate race, state Representative James Talarico in Texas’ Senate race and state Representative Gina Hinojosa in Texas’ governor race.
Trump, who has endorsed hundreds of candidates in the midterms, has endorsed their Republican rivals—Representative Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race, state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race and incumbent Governor Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race.
In 2024, Trump won both Iowa and Texas by double digits, but Democrats are working to make those states competitive in the midterms. Democrats believe the president’s declining approval rating , fueled by economic concerns centered around the cost of living, could allow them to expand the battleground this year—and some in the party believe Obama could help boost their standing.
White House spokesperson Allison Schuster told Newsweek , “President Trump’s endorsement is the most powerful endorsement in the history of American politics. Anyone claiming otherwise is a complete and utter fool. The President’s record speaks for itself: out of 185 endorsements, the President has a 99% success rate, winning 183 races."
Natalie Baldassarre, RNC National Press Secretary, told Newsweek that Obama’s “endorsement in these ruby red states is about as useful to Democrats as a snow shovel in July” and that the RNC is “confident that Iowa and Texas Republicans will be victorious across the board this November.”
Newsweek also reached out to Obama’s office for comment via email.
Iowa is one of the states that swung hardest from Obama to Trump and is emblematic of the conservative trends across the Midwest over the past decade. Obama won it by nearly 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump carried it by nearly 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.
Despite its rightward shift, Democrats believe economic fallout of the Iran war and tariffs could make the state competitive. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as leaning toward Republicans.
Polls suggest a potentially close race in Iowa.
The latest poll from The New York Times showed Hinson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from June 15-27. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll showed Turek up 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,003 registered voters from June 23-27. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research.
Obama endorsed Turek in a video posted to X on Wednesday of the two playing basketball in a gym. The former president praised Turek as a “man of character” and “somebody who knows how to win.”
Trump, meanwhile, endorsed Paxton in the GOP Senate runoff, giving him a boost against incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. Some Republicans have expressed concerns that Paxton’s victory in the primary could make the state more competitive in November due to his personal scandals and an impeachment in the state’s GOP-led legislature.
A poll from the Times showed a tight race with each candidate receiving 47 percent support. It surveyed 656 likely voters from June 19-27, 2026. A Texas Politics Project poll found Paxton up by a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from June 5-12, 2026.
A Siena University poll, meanwhile, found the two candidates tied at 46 percent. It surveyed 807 likely voters from June 1-4, 2026.
A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll found support for Talarico at 45 percent and Paxton at 40 percent, meaning no candidate has majority support but the Democratic candidate has a slight lead among decided voters. Maddux, a spokesman for Paxton's campaign, previously dismissed the poll in a statement to Newsweek , writing that it was conducted by ““the former Chief Strategy Officer of the Texas Democratic Party, a failed statewide candidate who lost his own race for Railroad Commissioner by double digits and who now runs a PAC whose stated purpose is electing Democrats in 2026.”
It surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15-17, 2026.
Unlike Iowa, Obama never won Texas in either of his presidential runs. He lost it by about 12 points in 2008 and 16 points in 2012. Trump carried it in his three runs as well, by 9 points in 2016, fewer than 6 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2024.
Texas has slowly shifted toward becoming more competitive due to growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their suburbs becoming more competitive. However, rightward shifts among the state’s Latino population boosted Trump’s performance in the state in 2024.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as leaning toward Republicans.
Abbott is still viewed as having an advantage in the Texas governor race against Hinojosa; he is a well-established incumbent who lacks the same scandals as Paxton.
The Times poll found that he led Hinojosa by about 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent. Meanwhile, the Texas Politics Project gave him a 7-point lead, 47 percent to 40 percent. He led by 6 points in the Siena poll, 49 percent to 43 percent.
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