RESOLVING THE LEDGER
This is one outlet's own report from Deutsche Welle — the article as it was filed. Other outlets are covering the same event; open the full story to compare every source side by side.
See the full story · 1 sources
New research finds the Bronze Age collapse of civilization emerged from water scarcity. Are droughts today pushing us toward a collapse of our own?
https://p.dw.com/p/5JZFP Advertisement Christopher Nolan's latest blockbuster has drawn tens of millions of viewers into a world of stormy seas and cities on fire.
Minus the monsters, that world is based in reality. The Odyssey — a post-Trojan War survival story — is set during the Bronze Age collapse of civilization.
A new study links that collapse to a severe climate shift. And the authors warn of "implications for the future."
Scientists have long known about a mysterious and severe drought that struck more than 3,000 years ago, overlapping with the disintegration of kingdoms and states across the Mediterranean .
Ancient Epic: The Odyssey on Film To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Research published last month sheds light on the potential cause of that drought. A slow drying trend and a quicker natural cycle of dry weather stacked on top of each other.
Katherine Power, the Stockholm University scientist who led the study, said the environment at the time could explain the mass migration and conflicts of the Odyssey's era.
For decades scholars have speculated on the reason for the large-scale movement during this time — which is also referred to as the period of the so-called "Sea Peoples."
Archeologists argue that climate shifts could help explain the migration and political collapse at the end of the Bronze Age. The new findings add puzzle pieces.
"We don't know necessarily why those people moved," Power said. "But if we can say, 'hey, the climate was getting worse and worse to survive,' that could be a potential reason."
And that, she says, is relevant to today. Europe's major rivers are at record lows, and drought is creating conditions for devastating wildfires as well as fueling historic crop-loss. That includes France's lowest maize harvest in 50 years.
The same cycles of wetting and drying from the Atlantic are still at play, but they're now happening in the context of a world that's heating as a result of humans burning oil, gas and coal.
"I think it is even more alarming and even more of a threat," Power said.
But does what happened then give insights into what might happen now?
Eric H. Cline, archeologist at George Washington University, who wrote a book on the roots of the Bronze Age crisis, said drought and disease were part of the "perfect storm of calamities" that led to societal downfall.
He sees parallels to today. In an email to DW, he said "we should be very concerned," about climate change as a stressor for the collapse of civilization. "That fear is not too dramatic at all."
He added that on his most optimistic days, he believes "we will come to our senses and sidestep that possibility at some point."
How climate change is teaming up with 'Super El Nino' To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Power's research sought to explore what patterns might lie behind isolated Bronze Age drought events.
They started by examining plant spores, ice cores, cave stones, and other natural records that pointed to drought . Then, she and co-author, Stockholm paleoclimate scientist Qiong Zhang, turned to modeling to get a broader picture.
Their model looked at the whole planet, overlaid with a grid, each cell covering a roughly 125-kilometer (78-mile) area. A supercomputer then calculated the conditions in each of these cells, for every month, across thousands of years. That let the scientists look at the entire Mediterranean.
"We're not now stuck with just one core or one cave," Power said. "We can see farther afield and build a whole picture."
What they found was not a single event that dramatically and suddenly changed the climate. Instead, shorter cycles of wetting and drying lined up with a longer warming trend.
"When we are looking for connections between climate changes and civilization changes, we often are looking for that big, huge, abrupt, catastrophic event," Power said, adding that it is "slow, gradual changes that push a society over a threshold.”
She said it could have been a steady fall in water supply that led to a slow decline in crops, which prompted people to migrate, triggering conflict.
"It doesn't take very much to push a society over the threshold that they're comfortable with," Power said. "What if you add something more to the mix? Maybe then that pushes you a bit farther, and you can't quite recover from that." Edited by: Tamsin Walker
AIPROPX is an independent multi-source news index — we track, compare, and connect coverage from across the web into one place you won't find anywhere else.