RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesAmazon is set to announce its second-quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday.
Here's what analysts are expecting, according to estimates compiled by LSEG:
Wall Street is also looking at other key revenue numbers:
Investors are watching Amazon and the rest of the so-called hyperscalers' capital expenditures as the mood around massive investments in artificial intelligence has grown increasingly jittery. Alphabet shares sank last week after the company hiked its capex forecast for the year to as high as $205 billion.
On Thursday, Microsoft shares surged as much as 15% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and reaffirmed its 2026 capex plans. Meta 's stock tumbled 9%, meanwhile, after it gave a light revenue forecast for the current quarter, with its AI bets eating into its cash flow.
Amazon's capital expenditures reached $44.2 billion in the first quarter, up 77% from a year ago, and the figure is expected to creep higher in the second quarter to $49.3 billion, per FactSet data.
The company held steady on its February guidance that capex will hit roughly $200 billion for 2026. But several analysts are expecting Amazon to follow in the footsteps of Alphabet and lift its forecast for the year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a research note earlier this month that the "ecosystem remains compute-constrained and urgency to spend remains high." They now expect Amazon's capex to reach $218 billion this year, and forecast budgets to keep rising through 2028, when capex could total $318 billion.
The analysts were also bullish on Amazon's cloud business, pointing to its "private lab deals" as a catalyst for "multi-year growth durability." Amazon has continued to deepen its cloud and chips partnerships with the leading AI providers OpenAI and Anthropic . In April, it struck a deal with Meta to supply the social networking giant with AWS Graviton chips .
"We also think AWS's access to almost all of the leading models, small/medium and customized models position it as a winner in a world where optimizing token cost per task is the key," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Cloud growth will be in focus after Amazon's primary rivals both posted strong results. Google Cloud revenue jumped 82% year over year in the most recent quarter. Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue rose 43% during the fiscal fourth quarter.
AWS revenue is expected to rise about 31% from a year ago, according to StreetAccount, compared with 28% growth in the first quarter, which represented its fastest expansion in more than three years.
While Amazon continues to invest in AI, it has trimmed its corporate head count. The company held layoffs in its customer service and seller support divisions in recent months.
Amazon stock chart. Last week, it announced job cuts in its artificial general intelligence unit, marking the latest reorganization of that group after Amazon installed a new AGI leader and the head of its AGI Lab announced his departure.
During the second quarter, Amazon hosted its annual Prime Day discount bonanza. The company moved up the event from its typical July time frame, citing a busy calendar marked by the World Cup and America's 250th anniversary of independence.
Mizuho analysts wrote in a Monday note that the timing shift could lead to a slowdown in Amazon's North America retail sales growth in the third quarter before they reaccelerate in the fourth quarter.
U.S. online spending across all retailers during Prime Day, which ran June 23 through June 26, grew about 9.3% year over year to $26.4 billion , according to Adobe. Amazon doesn't release sales figures from the event.
Evercore analysts described the event as "reasonably successful" in a note to clients earlier this week. Analysts at KeyBanc said their proprietary data showed Prime Week spending rose 41.7%, compared with 50.5% last year, indicating the event was "strong, but not as strong as last year."
Amazon stock is up about 3% year to date, while the S&P 500 has risen roughly 8%.
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