RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The 2025 Texans may have been the best team in franchise history, matching a franchise record with 12 wins and posting the team's best point differential (+109) ever. Unfortunately it wasn't enough for a third straight division title thanks to the ascension of the Jaguars, and while the Texans made it to the Divisional Round for a third straight season, their first ever trip to the AFC Championship Game remained out of grasp. Will 2026 be the year? It may come down to the performance of a retooled offensive line and whether C.J. Stroud can recapture the magic of his rookie season.
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The market has backed the Texans over the offseason, and they're now tied for ninth in Super Bowl odds at DraftKings. They remain the clear favorite to win the AFC South over the Jaguars despite last year's order of finish.
Part of the concern with backing Houston during DeMeco Ryans' first two seasons was that they were managing to hit 10 wins in one of the worst divisions in the league. Last year that changed, with the Texans matching their franchise-best win total while the Jaguars and even the Colts in the first half of the year proved to be legit competition.
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The Texans' anemic rushing attack finished 29th while averaging less than 4 yards per carry, and while the per play passing numbers were just average, the Texans did a great job avoiding sacks and interceptions, finishing eighth in both rate categories. The defense earned high marks across the board except in goal to go situations, where they were the second worst team in the league.
David Montgomery joins the team to boost the rushing attack after three successful seasons in Detroit, where he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. The Texans also brought in three likely starters in right tackle Braden Smith, left guard Wyatt Teller and first-round pick Keylan Rutledge, who is expected to man the pivot. The defense remains more or less the same, with Reed Blankenship taking over for Jimmie Ward at one safety spot while Logan Hall and second-round pick Kayden McDonald will help replace the lost defensive line depth.
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The Texans catch a massive break with their road matchup against the Jaguars moved to London, a potential difference-maker on the schedule after the teams each won their home game in the series last year. The Texans also get their other road divisional games out the way before that Week 6 London game, and facing the Colts in Week 3 could potentially be another break depending on the health of Daniel Jones. The schedule gets tougher after the bye with three back-to-back road games scheduled, sending the indoors team outdoors four times after Thanksgiving.
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I don't see value in taking Houston to win the division with the way the odds are set as the Jaguars remain a strong team, but the schedule benefits early in the season should be enough to get Houston to 10 wins. Even if the outdoor games late in the season prove tough for the offense, an elite Texans defense should keep them in every game as they surrendered more than 21 points just three times last year. And if the offense takes a step forward in its second year under coordinator Nick Caley, the ceiling is as high as any team in the league.
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