RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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For basically the last two years, the Oklahoma City Thunder had the easiest argument as the best team in the West. They won the 2025 championship, came back with another 64-18 season, and finished 2025-26 with the best net rating in all of basketball at +11.1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won back-to-back MVP awards, Chet Holmgren became an All-Star and finished second for Defensive Player of the Year, and they entered the playoffs looking completely set up to repeat.
Then the San Antonio Spurs wrecked their repeat. They went 62-20 themselves, beat the Thunder in all four regular-season meetings, and then eliminated them 4-3 in the Western Conference Finals, including a Game 7 win on the road. San Antonio eventually lost 4-1 to the Knicks in the Finals, but going from 34 wins in 2024-25 to 62 wins and the Finals in one year completely flipped the hierarchy of the West.
The offseason only made this debate more interesting. The Spurs basically kept everybody and added Tobias Harris on a two-year, $31.0 million deal, while Victor Wembanyama signed a five-year, $252.0 million extension . Oklahoma City had to start paying for that ridiculously expensive young core, which pushed Luguentz Dort , Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins out of the team without adding an established vet to replace them.
ESPN’s already projecting the Spurs to finish first in the entire league at 62-20, two games ahead of the Thunder. I don’t think the difference is that clear, since Oklahoma City still has a championship core and was statistically the best regular-season team in basketball last year. But right now there’s a real conversation here: who actually has the better team entering 2026-27?
Superstar Battle: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Vs. Victor Wembanyama
There’s probably not another team comparison where both sides can legitimately say they have the best player in the league. Shai averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds last season while shooting an absurd 55.3% from the field and 38.6% from three. He won MVP and Clutch Player of the Year, and his efficiency still doesn’t make much sense for a guard taking that many difficult looks.
The Thunder offense basically starts and ends with Shai getting wherever he wants. Tracking data had him scoring 1.18 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, the best mark among anybody with at least 200 possessions, and he became the first player in the tracking era to shoot 55.0%-plus on 500-plus pull-up two-pointers. That’s why even a Thunder offense that ranked only seventh at 118.9 points in Offensive Rating always has a simple answer late in games. Give Shai the ball.
Wembanyama’s value is totally different because he can be the best player on both ends of the floor. He averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks on 51.2% shooting and 34.9% from three last year. He won Defensive Player of the Year, made First Team All-NBA and First Team All-Defense, and finished third in MVP voting at only 22 years old.
The head-to-head matchup gives Wemby a little edge for me. He averaged 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.7 blocks in the Western Conference Finals, including a ridiculous 41-point, 24-rebound Game 1. Shai still averaged 25.9 points and 8.9 assists, but San Antonio held him to 40.9% shooting and 28.6% from three across seven games.
Shai is still the better offensive player right now. That’s not really debatable. But Wembanyama can dominate a series without scoring 35 because every drive, lob, rebound, and shot around the rim starts changing when he’s on the floor. Against this specific opponent, that makes the superstar battle basically even.
The Thunder Still Have An Insane Starting Five
Oklahoma City’s starting group should still be Shai, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams , Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and that’s a crazy amount of defense around an MVP. Wallace averaged 1.9 steals and made the All-Defensive Second Team; Holmgren finished second in DPOY voting after averaging 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks; and Hartenstein gives them the physical center they need against bigger teams.
The swing piece is Jalen Williams. He played only 33 regular-season games and averaged 17.1 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds while shooting just 29.9% from three. That’s clearly below the version of Williams who became an All-Star and All-NBA player during the 2025 championship run, so a healthy bounce-back season from him could completely change this conversation.
That’s also why I wouldn’t overreact and suddenly say the Thunder are finished because they lost three role players. Shai, Williams, and Holmgren are still 28, 25, and 24 entering the season, and all three are locked into enormous long-term deals. The Thunder paid Williams and Holmgren five-year rookie extensions worth around $239.2 million guaranteed each, while Shai has a four-year, $285.0 million supermax waiting.
The expensive part is exactly why the supporting cast changed, though. The Thunder could afford absurd depth while the stars were cheaper. Now the stars are getting expensive, and the roster has to get cheaper.
The Spurs Have More Offensive Options
The Spurs don’t have quite the same locked-in starting five because Mitch Johnson can go in different directions at forward. De’Aaron Fox , Stephon Castle , Devin Vassell, and Wembanyama are basically guaranteed, with Julian Champagnie and Tobias Harris both making sense for that fifth spot depending on the matchup.
That guard group is already pretty ridiculous. Fox averaged 18.6 points and 6.2 assists and made the All-Star team, while Castle jumped to 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in Year 2. Castle still shot only 33.2% from three, but he became a legitimate star and then averaged 18.0 points and 7.6 assists against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.
Devin Vassell doesn’t need the ball nearly as muc...
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