RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Aston Villa have all the vestiges of a team on the rise. After a decades-long dry spell, they are weeks away from their second season in the UEFA Champions League in three years. They rank fourth in the Premier League for total points since Unai Emery took over in Oct. 2022, behind only the last three title winners. Villa are also just months removed from their first European trophy in 25 years, their UEFA Europa League triumph earning them the right to face Paris Saint-Germain in Wednesday's UEFA Super Cup.
And yet, they also have all the trademarks of a team tasked with punching above their own weight.
Despite their upward trajectory, Villa have spent much of their summer complying with the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules. The financial rewards of Champions League qualification – and a controversial sponsorship with Visit Rwanda, reportedly worth around $27 million a season – have only helped so much. They bid farewell to Morgan Rogers, who led Villa in minutes played last season and was second only to Ollie Watkins in goals scored, the England international now on Chelsea's books. Youri Tielemans also left for Manchester United while Lucas Digne might instead feature for PSG on Wednesday.
Villa will, naturally, travel to Salzburg, Austria with replacements. Alejandro Garnacho is the headliner, hoping to put a few wasted seasons at Manchester United and Chelsea behind him, while Villa have added Switzerland's Johan Manzambi from Freiburg and spent around $50 million to sign Joao Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers. They skew younger with their replacements for the most part – Gomes is the oldest of the new recruits at 25, while Tielemans is a year away from his 30th birthday and Digne is years past his. This summer marks an oddly-timed reset of sorts for Emery's side, who more closely resemble one of the Premier League's more talented midtable teams than a side that might easily slot into the top four at season's end.
It will be hard to know what exactly to expect from Villa, not only against PSG but when compared to Europe's elites and the Premier League's top teams this season. That said, it is still inherently difficult to write Villa off, or any of their English counterparts in Europe, for that matter. The country's recent success in European competition reflects the current concentration of power in the club game, making Villa's game against PSG – and their entire Champions League campaign, for that matter – a fascinating barometer for England's growing reputation for hoarding some of the game's best talents.
Villa are not expected to be at full strength against PSG in the Super Cup, which always has the feel of a glorified preseason friendly rather than a true reflection of either team's prospects for the upcoming season. World Cup semifinalists Watkins, Ezri Konsa and Emiliano Martinez are in the midst of a post-tournament break, while Manzambi is dealing with a knee injury. PSG have welcomed back their World Cup players, but it is unclear how many of them will actually play a meaningful role in Wednesday's game.
It creates a more intriguing playing field in Salzburg, to say the least. The set-up was similar for the Super Cup a year ago, when a rotated PSG faced Tottenham Hotspur mere weeks after the French side lost to Chelsea in the Club World Cup final . Spurs, who now have back-to-back bottom-half finishes in the Premier League, went toe-to-toe with PSG before a late collapse and a defeat in penalty kicks, a signal that even England's middling sides can come up with the goods on a given day.
Last season's Villa, on paper, looks more equipped to give PSG a run for their money than this one's does, but they will be hard to discount in some respects. Their ability to land Garnacho serves as an example -- the 22-year-old's stock has dropped in recent years, but his talent is hard to deny even after his less-than-ideal season at Chelsea. He may have played just 962 minutes in the Premier League but he averaged 0.6 non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists last season, fourth best in the league. He is a ceiling-raiser when utilized properly and Emery's spell at Villa thus far has been an exercise in getting the best out of underrated talents.
Villa's status as a Champions League-bound club undoubtedly assisted their ability to sign Garnacho in the first place, but the Premier League's appeal exists at just about every turn. The game's elite players are all spread out amongst Europe's superclubs, but the talented players that land just outside of that group often find happy homes in England. The Premier League's financial might is unrivaled, as is its competitive allure. It is why Crystal Palace had more players at this summer's World Cup than Real Madrid and why someone like 22-year-old Gonzalo Garcia, who blew up during the Club World Cup a year ago , swapped Los Blancos for Fulham as he looks for the necessary playing time to hone his craft. The Premier League's midtable teams can collect high-level talent in a way their counterparts cannot, each of them in full recognition of the fact.
England's greatest demonstration of power has been its back-to-back triumphs in both the Europa League and Conference League, where a batch of Premier League clubs have notched notable achievements despite not ranking amongst the elites domestically. Spurs and Palace are classic examples – both have been resigned to bottom-half finishes recently and neither was expected to challenge for the Premier League title. Their choice to put all their eggs in the European basket paid off with relatively straightforward trajectories to the podium, the pair living up to the billing as the oddsmakers' favorites to win from the start of their campaigns. Villa followed a similar path but achieved remarkable consistency by coupling it with a fourth place Premier League finish, while a heavily-rotated Chelsea won the Conference League despite fully prioritizing it a year before ...
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