RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 27 sourcesAbdul El-Sayed just won by the skin of his teeth. His victory proves that the Bernie brand is far from unpopular in the Midwest, but that progressives will still have to climb mountains to win, writes John Bowden
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A fter a hard-fought and bitter campaign and a real nailbiter of an evening, Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee in the Michigan Senate race.
Polls leading up to Tuesday’s primary in the Great Lakes State put El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health department director , comfortably ahead of his opponent by a double-digit margin. Campaign officials working for Rep. Haley Stevens reportedly viewed the race as more of a toss-up heading into the final hours.
They were right, and the polls were very, very wrong.
In the end, El-Sayed won by a one-point margin of victory. Though he led Stevens for almost the entire evening, the exceedingly narrow margin sapped much of the energy out of progressive social media spaces as votes continued to trickle in.
All naysaying from the center-left will focus on El-Sayed’s very slim margin of victory, in no small part due to the illusions about the race created by the polling environment prior to Tuesday. But make no mistake: this is a historic achievement for the American left. The victory of a firmly progressive Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidate in a statewide election, in the Midwest, will electrify left-leaning organizations in Michigan and elsewhere as narratives about the brand being confined to deep-blue strongholds just took a major blow.
It’s no general election victory; not yet. But pollsters and the mainstream media — and Republicans, despite their bluster — are far from counting him out in November. And regardless, many assumptions about Democratic voters in purple states were just torn to pieces.
We would be remiss to talk about El-Sayed’s victory like it was anything more than it was: A slim, but not translucent, margin of victory separated him from Stevens, despite all of the criticism that the congresswoman was a poor candidate. Stevens eschewed in-person events and was never able to turn out the kinds of crowds El-Sayed did when appearing alongside national progressive figures like Sanders or streamer Hasan Piker. None of that really seemed to push her into obscurity, however, and as she nipped at his heels Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning in the vote returns it was clear that the massive flood of PAC money, including from the pro-Israel lobby, had made for a far more competitive race than almost anyone had forseen.
There’s a lesson there for progressives. El-Sayed is a candidate whose reputation (so far) is squeaky-clean, free of the damaging past comments that dogged other progressive candidates like Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York or William Lawrence in Michigan’s 7th district. To win statewide against a massive flood of AIPAC money it took a number of stars aligning for progressives, not least being the unpopularity of the Iran war and Israel’s war in Gaza, and a year when frustration towards party leaders was at its zenith.
None of those factors were insignificant. El-Sayed crossed the finish line, yes, but by the skin of his teeth and with the wind at his back. Others may not be so lucky.
If there’s one group that was feeling genuinely confident on Wednesday it’s probably the Democratic Socialists of America. Aside from the aforementioned proof that a Medicare-for-All-supporting Democrat can win a statewide race in a midwestern swing state, even when massively outspent, there was one other reason for the Democratic Party’s far left flank to feel good about Tuesday’s results.
That’s because truth and fiction are blending together and both El-Sayed and his onetime rival, fellow progressive Mallory McMorrow, were linked closely with the DSA brand in the waning weeks of the campaign. Some of it came from surprising sources — like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Senate Democratic campaign arm, who reportedly was telling donors that McMorrow was a DSA member as a means of dissuading the party’s moneyed elite from backing here.
The DSA is now watching as two fairly mainstream progressive Democrats get branded with their logo, willingly or not. That only helps their brand among less politically-connected voters in the long run.
“The lesson the left should take away from last night is the same as what moderates should be heeding: this is Michigan,” Rodericka Applewhaite of Majority Democrats, which supported Mallory McMorrow during the primary, told The Independent on Wednesday.
“Both factions will need the other in order to bring independents into the fold and beat Mike Rogers in November. Leaders from state Senator McMorrow to Governor Whitmer understand the stakes, which is why they moved quickly this morning to present a united front. Abdul will win this if he uses that support to do what he does best and stay focused on costs and corruption.”
In the end, El-Sayed’s victory is a mixed bag for the party overall. It’s definitely a blow for party leaders like Chuck Schumer and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC, whose combined reputations were a major drag on Stevens’s campaign and a major animating factor for the left. But it wasn’t the blowout victory the left wanted, and the center left is largely looking at Michigan’s results as a sign that they aren’t out of the fight just yet -- far from it.
Progressives are riding the contrasting highs and lows of another night of an undeniable shift in the Democratic Party’s membership, as El-Sayed’s victory was accompanied by other victories for the left such as the ousting of another sitting member of Congress, Shri Thanedar of Michigan’s 13th district, in a race that took place far outside of New York.
Donavan McKinney, Thanedar’s opponent, just won a majority-Black district with the endorsement of the DSA, dealing another blow to narratives about the group (whose membership skews...
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