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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 33m ago
Can Indiana football go perfect again? Schedule predictions, toughest games, matchups
BLOOMINGTON — How do you follow perfection?
That is Curt Cignetti ’s task in 2026. So much of Indiana ’s season last year became historic, at both the individual and program-wide levels, that it’s hard to even fathom what comes next. Unless, of course, you’re Cignetti, who declared just days after winning IU football ’s first national championship that he was turning the page to “Chapter 3.”
What will that look like? Difficult tests once again await his team both at home and on the road. As does the opportunity for a third straight College Football Playoff appearance, and the chance to defend Indiana ’s Big Ten (and perhaps national) title(s).
With that in mind, we’re going to pick all 12 games on Indiana’s regular-season schedule. Variance and unknowns stopped us from going any further, but first through methodology and then on a game-by-game basis, let’s lay out our predictions for the Hoosiers in 2026.
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Five factors I'm considering
Picking each of these games started with these five considerations applied to each matchup.
Line of scrimmage play: Who enjoys more advantages, on both sides of the ball, at the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback play: Which team has the better quarterback and support around him.
Defensive control: Ties into LOS play. Which team has a better chance of changing games defensively.
Coaching advantage: Pretty obvious.
Homefield advantage: Very obvious.
Weighing those five factors led me to basic wins and losses. Final scores are a bit more of a guess, but they’re informed by what we’ve seen Indiana do in Cignetti’s first two seasons in Bloomington. So, without further preamble, let’s pick some games:
Indiana football vs North Texas prediction
Indiana has started slowly in each of its last two openers. In both 2024 and 2025, Week 1 felt like an exercise in shaking off rust, with final scores to show for it.
Unlike last year against Old Dominion, though, Indiana enters Week 1 by far the more settled team. North Texas has a new coach and a new quarterback, and some questions on defense. Given the talent disparity, that’s a dangerous combination.
Five factors: Indiana 5, North Texas 0.
Final score: Indiana 41, North Texas 3.
Indiana football vs Howard prediction
The last two FCS opponents to visit Memorial Stadium lost by a combined score of 150-3. Don’t overthink this.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Howard 0.
Final score: Indiana 59, Howard 0.
Indiana football vs Western Kentucky prediction
Here’s an interesting one. Western Kentucky doesn’t necessarily hold on any of those five factors. But the Hilltoppers have become a regular winner under Tyson Helton at the Group of Six level.
They also have their second-leading passer back from last season, Rodney Tisdale Jr., though how that quarterback room shapes up remains to be seen. In seven years in Bowling Green, Helton’s only losing season remains the COVID-hit 2020 campaign. If he got IU earlier in the schedule this might feel a little bit more like Old Dominion a year ago. But Cignetti’s teams are usually hitting their stride by Week 3, and that will be too much for the ‘Toppers.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Western Kentucky 0.
Final score: Indiana 45, Western Kentucky 13.
Indiana football vs Northwestern prediction
The Wildcats’ offense is an unknown, with Chip Kelly at the controls and IU’s old friend, Aidan Chiles, behind center. Chiles has given Indiana some trouble in the past: He’s 43 of 57 passing against the Hoosiers in the last two seasons, with 436 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.
All but a handful of those yards, though, came on a small number of drives near the start of games that eventually unfolded into easy Indiana wins. This is also a Friday night Big Ten opener following a national championship season. Northwestern has some line-of-scrimmage talent on defense, but not enough.
Five factors: Indiana 5, Northwestern 0.
Final score: Indiana 38, Northwestern 13.
Indiana football at Rutgers prediction
October sees Indiana on the road three times in four games, with the only home date in that stretch against Ohio State. Here is the Hoosiers’ proving ground, for better or worse.
That starts at Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights have to replace Athan Kaliakmanis behind center. KJ Duff might be one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. Who’s trying to get him the ball remains an open question at time of writing. Whoever it is, this is one of those matchups that might be defined by the dominance of Indiana’s defense. Away from home, stifling defense wins games, something IU proved repeatedly last year and will again in Piscataway.
Five factors: Indiana 4, Rutgers 1.
Final score: Indiana 42, Rutgers 13.
Indiana football at Nebraska prediction
An interesting test just before Ohio State comes to town, and the kind of game that can sneak up on a team. Nebraska is probably a step behind Indiana in most key areas, but only a step, and the gameday atmosphere in Memorial Stadium can be a game changer. And, unlike in the Hoosiers’ 2019 trip to Lincoln, Nebraska won’t take IU lightly.
Cignetti’s teams aren’t prone to trap games. We’re not labeling this as that. Again, Indiana will win with defense here, but will have to effort for a while to do it, with the Cornhuskers’ offense a little bit more settled and dangerous than the last time these two teams met.
Five factors: Indiana 4, Nebraska 1.
Final score: Indiana 34, Nebraska 14.
Indiana football vs Ohio State prediction
The big one, then.
No game is circled so brightly on the Big Ten calendar to start the season. Ohio State enters the year the conference favorite, and the No. 1 team in the country. Indiana has designs on upsetting the Buckeyes again, a win that would go a long way toward paving the Hoosiers’ road back to the conference title game.
Splitting the matchups here is so difficult. Julian Sayin might be the best quarterback in the country. This is probably the best defensive line ...
Can IndianaScheduleCurt CignettiChapterIndyStar IUZach OstermanIndianaUnlessCignettiDifficultCollege Football PlayoffBig Ten
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