RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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When the Atlanta Braves start a four-game series against the Washington Nationals on Thursday night, the Braves will face a player who would fit perfectly in an Atlanta uniform.
With just days remaining until the Aug. 3 trade deadline, the Braves are badly in need of a shortstop. Their shortstops rank 29th in the majors in on-base percentage (.274), 26th in batting average (.220) and 25th in OPS (.618).
Meanwhile, the Nationals' CJ Abrams has emerged as perhaps the best hitting shortstop in all of baseball, and that includes Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. The 25-year-old Abrams leads all shortstops in home runs (27), RBI (82) and slugging percentage (.926) while ranking second in average (.292). If Washington wasn't in the playoff chase, the club could very well consider moving Abrams for a massive return. But the Nationals (55-54) are just two games behind the Phillies for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Despite its shortstop struggles, Atlanta is a -155 MLB betting favorite on Thursday against Washington (+130). You can wager on Braves-Nationals at any of the best sports betting apps .
While Braves vs. Nationals is the marquee attraction on Thursday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes 10 MLB games. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Thursday, July 30. All times Eastern.
Time: 7:10 p.m. | Location: New York | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Over 7 | Expert: Eury Perez Over 5.5 total pitcher strikeouts -130 (Prop Bet Guy)
Two of most surprising teams in baseball -- for different reasons -- square off when the Marlins and Mets meet at Citi Field. Pérez (5-8, 3.56 ERA) takes the mound for Miami, and while he may be winless over his last three starts, he has pitched well, with a 2.37 ERA. He also has reached six strikeouts or more in 12 of 17 starts this season. "The Mets have a 26.5% [strikeout percentage] over the last two weeks against righties, and they continue to struggle offensively (.706 OPS) with Juan Soto on the injured list," Prop Bet Guy says. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, says there's a 71% chance that these two teams combine for more than seven runs and hit the Over on the run total .
Time: 7:15 p.m. | Location: Atlanta | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Nationals +130 | Expert: Braves -142 (Matt Severance)
Washington's Jake Irvin (2-4, 5.23) is scheduled to take the mound for the first time since going on the 60-day IL with a strained right shoulder. Last season, he led all of baseball in earned runs allowed (114). So Atlanta, which sends Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.79) to the mound, has the edge in starting pitching. "[It's] not ideal the Braves had to play two at the Mets on Wednesday, but they were off on Tuesday, so I'm not too worried," Severance says. The SportsLine Projection Model disagrees. It says the Nationals have a 42% chance to win and gives a 'B' grade to the Washington money line .
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Time: 9:40 p.m. | Location: San Diego | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Under 8.5 -119 | Expert: Padres -124 (Eric Cohen)
The hottest team in baseball is ... San Diego? It's true. The Padres own the longest winning streak in the majors, at five, and have moved within 1.5 games of the Phillies for the third and final Wild Card spot entering this four-game series against the struggling Giants . Cohen notes that San Francisco starter Robbie Ray is much worse on the road (3-5, 4.35 ERA) than at home (6-1, 2.22). "Look out for the middle of the Padres' batting order against Ray: Manny Machado , Ty France and Luis Rengifo are a combined 19 of 48 (.396) with seven home runs against the left-hander," he says. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model says that there's a 62.5% chance the teams combine for eight runs or fewer and assigns a 'B' grade to Under 8.5 (-119).
Time: 9:40 p.m. | Location: Sacramento, Calif. | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Athletics +155 | Expert: Sonny Gray Over 4.5 total pitcher strikeouts -115 (Alex Selesnick)
The Yankees ' Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04) is the runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, but if something happens to Schlittler down the stretch, could Boston's Sonny Gray take it? The 36-year-old righty (12-2, 2.78 ERA) is in the midst of the best season of his career and has helped the Red Sox battle back to a Wild Card spot. On Thursday, he squares off against his original MLB team , the Athletics, who have the worst run differential (-128) in all of baseball. "Gray's strikeout numbers are down this year, and as a result we're getting a nice discount," Cohen says of this prop betting line. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model says the Athletics have a 46.0% chance to win and gives a 'B' grade to the Athletics money line (+155).
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Time: 10:10 p.m. | Location: Los Angeles | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Dodgers -160 | Expert: Dodgers -156 (Eric Cohen)
Los Angeles and Seattle play the rubber game of their three-game series on Thursday, with the Dodgers' Roki Sasaki (4-5, 4.71) taking on the Mariners ' Bryan Woo (7-7, 4.37). Woo's home-road splits are startling. At home, he is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA in nine starts. On the road, he's 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in 11 starts. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has won all four of Sasaki's starts this month. "I think the Dodgers' offense supports Sasaki against the struggling Woo and wins the three-game series on Thursday night," Cohen says. The SportsLine Projection Model agrees. It says Los Angeles has a 60.0% chance to win and assigns a 'C' grade to the Dodgers money line (-160).
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