RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The Braves may have the roster that's most capable of taking down the Dodgers in the National League, but many experts thought that Atlanta needed to add another high-end starting pitcher to the rotation for the stretch run. Pundits largely ripped general manager Alex Anthopoulos for not addressing that need at the deadline, especially as the team's lone notable move came by trading for journeyman Tyler Mahle from the Giants .
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But perhaps Mahle has been energized by moving from near the NL West cellar to a playoff race, as he was dominant in his Braves debut, and he returns to the mound tonight in a series finale against the visiting New York Mets . It's a 7:15 ET first pitch.
The Braves are -170 money-line favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total runs is 8.5. If you're interested in MLB betting and want to try it on the best sports betting apps , you can check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games like Mets vs. Braves from the simulations and our experts .
The Braves need to take advantage of the Dodgers' recent funk, and by that I mean finishing ahead of Los Angeles and getting home-field advantage in a possible NLDS or NLCS matchup. Milwaukee is atop the NL standings by two games over the Braves and Dodgers. Finishing with the worst record of the three division winners gets punished severely, as that means hosting a Wild-Card Round series while the other two division champions get a bye to the Division Series.
DraftKings offers odds on playoff seeding, with the Dodgers still -150 favorites to be the No. 1. The Braves are +600 there, +270 for the No. 2 seed and -125 favorites for the No. 3. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Atlanta for the third-most wins in the NL at 94.4, with Milwaukee at 98.5 and Los Angeles 96.9.
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Anthopoulos did go big-game hunting ahead of the deadline but apparently wouldn't come close to matching what the Dodgers offered Detroit for Tarik Skubal . Get him to pair with Chris Sale , and I believe Atlanta could have taken out L.A. Now I don't think so. Unless Mahle becomes like Rick Sutcliffe with the Cubs post-trade deadline in 1984.
The 31-year-old was 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA and 14 homers allowed in 18 starts with the Giants, but he had been trending a bit better and was fabulous last Friday at Yankee Stadium in his Braves debut. He threw six shutout innings and had a season-high-tying nine strikeouts. He should have gotten the win, but the bullpen blew a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth.
Mahle, who now has a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts, said he used a mix of his four-seam fastball, splitter and cutter against New York: "I was making good pitches. My fastball was a little hoppy. I used some good splits. It's exciting to come [to the Braves], who are in first place and play so well."
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Mahle faced the Mets on April 3 in San Francisco and allowed five runs and eight hits (two homers) over five innings of a Giants loss. Marcus Semien and Francisco Alvarez went yard off him. The model has Mahle at 5.4 innings, 5.5 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs tonight. He is +186 to earn a victory.
New York is playing out the string and trying to see which young players might help in 2027. That includes rookie lefty Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA) as he makes his eighth big-league start. The 24-year-old, ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect in the organization, threw five shutout innings in Pittsburgh last time out in a victory. Since joining the rotation right before the All-Star break, Thornton has a 1.86 ERA with three scoreless outings in five total starts.
He had a quality start at Citi Field vs. Atlanta on July 27, giving up three runs over 6.1 innings in a victory. Matt Olson is 0-for-2 with a walk in his career off Thornton but homered in Tuesday's win for No. 35 on the season to tie Philly's Kyle Schwarber and Houston's Yordan Alvarez for the big-league lead. Olson is +283 to go yard tonight, and Thornton has surrendered only three on the season. The model has him at 5.7 innings, 4.8 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs.
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It's the end of a nine-game trip for the Mets, so a natural letdown spot. I've had success this season on this particular three-leg parlay of a home team money line, Under 1.5 in the first inning and then an alt Under big total. The model has Atlanta winning 4.6-4.1. That would be swell. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .
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