RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The precise amount could change, but the officials expect Musk to spend around $100 million to $200 million with a focus on voter turnout in key races, including Texas, where the fate of Republican nominee Ken Paxton could determine which party controls the US Senate.
The planned cash injection—or any in-kind contribution relating to voter turnout—would be a boon for Paxton, who has been vastly outraised in contributions. According to the latest FEC filings, James Talarico had raised roughly $69 million compared to Paxton's $9 million.
While an endorsement from President Donald Trump carried him to victory, Paxton lagged behind in contributions throughout a bruising primary against Senator John Cornyn that resurfaced past scandals, and has fared little better since becoming the nominee.
To date, neither of the two largest national GOP entities have committed to spend on Paxton. The Senate Leadership Fund is run by allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who supported Cornyn, while MAGA Inc has not released its spending plans.
Democrats in close races have generally outraised their Republican counterparts this cycle, so Paxton is not unique in being behind in fundraising. Numerous candidates are relying on national party committees and outside groups to make up the difference.
Musk’s projected spend adds to the Republican National Committee’s $128 million war chest, while the Democratic National Committee is $2 million in debt. The two main GOP super PACs for House and Senate races have $380 million, compared to Democrats’ $116 million. MAGA Inc has about $400 million on hand; there is no Democratic equivalent.
A spokesperson for America PAC declined to comment on the group’s spending plans. The New York Times earlier reported that Musk had authorized his PAC to spend at least $100 million for the 2026 midterms.
But Musk's track record in setting up voter turnout operations has been mixed.
In the 2024 election, the Trump campaign outsourced its field operations to America PAC, which paid third-party canvassing firms more than $46 million across several battleground states in an attempt to turn out “low propensity” voters, who like Trump but don’t always vote.
In the end, Trump swept all six battleground states, but Trump officials were unconvinced that was a result of America PAC’s work with paid canvassers (who often are not as enthusiastic as in-house canvassers and are known to pretend to hit doors to claim their paychecks), as opposed to Trump's celebrity appeal and ability to turn out his base.
The 2024 America PAC operation also faced complaints from workers who claimed that they had been tricked, and threatened with having to pay for their own lodging unless they hit massive quotas. (America PAC and Musk did not respond to requests for comment at the time.)
This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.
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