RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has created more opportunities for teams to compete for a national championship.
Programs that previously had almost no chance of making the playoffs now have a realistic path. That became clear over the past two seasons, as Indiana, SMU, Boise State, Tulane and James Madison all reached the CFP for the first time. Their success showed that winning games, capturing a conference title and building a strong resume can now be enough to earn a playoff spot.
Even with those first-time teams making the field, several well-known programs are still waiting for their CFP debut. Few came very close in 2025, while others have built talented rosters that could help them break through in 2026. Strong recruiting, experienced coaching staffs and favorable conference situations have put these teams in a good position.
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A few of these programs finished just outside the playoffs last season and may only need one or two more wins to qualify. Others play in conferences that are expected to receive multiple CFP bids, giving them another path into the field. With the 2026 season around the corner, these six teams have the best chance to make their first-ever CFP appearance.
6. Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy (29) rushes during the second quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images Missouri finished the 2025 season with an 8-5 record, but the Tigers were better than that record suggests. They scored 393 points and gave up only 246 while playing one of the toughest schedules in college football. Even though they lost five games, they stayed competitive against strong SEC opponents throughout the season.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has already shown what Missouri is capable of. The Tigers won 11 games and earned a New Year’s Six bowl appearance in 2023, proving they can compete with the nation’s top programs. Strong NIL support and improved recruiting have also helped build more depth across the roster, which is important during the long SEC season. If Missouri can turn a few close losses into wins and finish around 10-2, its strength of schedule could be enough to earn an at-large spot in the CFP.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes tight end DJ Vonnahme (81) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Vanderbilt Commodores in the third quarter during the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Iowa once again relied on its defense in 2025. The Hawkeyes finished 9-4, scored 381 points, and allowed only 209 points over 13 games. Their defense remained one of the best in the country and continued to be the foundation of the program.
Special teams and defense are still Iowa’s biggest strengths, but the offense showed noticeable improvement last season. If the Hawkeyes can become just a little more consistent on offense while keeping their elite defense, they could be a serious playoff contender. The Big Ten is expected to send several teams to the CFP again, so Iowa does not necessarily need to win the conference. Reaching 10 or more wins would likely put the Hawkeyes in a strong position to earn an at-large bid.
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4. UNLV Rebels
Former Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen enters his second season leading the UNLV Rebels. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images UNLV has become one of the top teams in the Mountain West under head coach Dan Mullen. The Rebels finished 10-4 in 2025 and ranked among the conference’s highest-scoring offenses, putting up 477 points.
That explosive offense gives UNLV a real chance to become the highest-ranked Group of 6 conference champion, which would secure an automatic spot in the CFP. Boise State, which won the past three Mountain West titles before joining the new Pac-12, showed that path is possible by reaching the playoff in 2024. However, the Rebels also allowed 392 points last season, so improving the defense will be the biggest priority. If that unit takes a step forward while the offense keeps producing, UNLV could become the favorite to claim the Group of 6 automatic playoff berth.
3. USC Trojans
Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images USC continued to adjust to life in the Big Ten during the 2025 season. The Trojans finished 9-4, scored 465 points, and once again had one of the country’s most productive offenses under head coach Lincoln Riley.
The biggest concern remains the defense. USC is also still getting used to the physical style of Big Ten football and the long trips across the Midwest. Even so, the Trojans showed progress in their second season in the conference. Since the Big Ten is expected to send three or four teams to the CFP each year, USC does not have to win the conference. If the Trojans reach 10 wins with another high-powered offense, they should have a strong chance to earn an at-large playoff berth.
2. Utah Utes
Nov 28, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Utah had an excellent 2025 season, finishing 11-2 while scoring 537 points and allowing only 246. The Utes narrowly missed the CFP after ending the year at No. 15 in the final CFP rankings .
Because of former head coach Kyle Whittingham, Utah is known for playing tough, physical football, and that identity continues to help Utah compete with the best teams. The Utes combined one of the nation’s top defenses with a high-scoring offense, making them one of the most balanced teams in the country.
The Big 12 is expected to be highly compe...
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