RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe 2026 US Open begins in earnest on Sunday, and it's hard to think of a time when this tournament felt so wide open among both men and women.
There is no Jannik Sinner. There might not be a fully healthy Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic. Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, has been in a slump. Seven different women have won the past seven Grand Slams.
There's no telling how it will work out, with multiple layers of drama built into the draw. Let's get into all of that.
Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz in
This is becoming a problem.
More than any sport, men's tennis has been defined by its rivalries. Borg-McEnroe, Sampras-Agassi, Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Titans of the sport, regularly facing each other in the biggest spots. Sinner-Alcaraz is supposed to be the next chapter of that, and some of their clashes are already legendary.
And yet, the two haven't played each other since Monte Carlo in April, shortly before Alcaraz went down with the wrist injury that has kept him out until this tournament. He's back now, just in time to watch Sinner vacate the draw with a knee injury . They will not play each other in a Grand Slam in 2026.
This is obviously concerning, especially considering we are talking about a 25-year-old and 23-year-old who are already facing not-small questions about their health. They're supposed to rule this sport for the next decade, but can we really expect them to stay on the court long enough to do that in their 30s?
It will be something to monitor for years to come. For now, we at least get Alcaraz back with the hope that he can deliver his usual magic at Flushing Meadows. Despite him not playing a singles match since Barcelona in April, you would be hard-pressed to find a sportsbook that doesn't have him as the tournament favorite.
Alcaraz did play in the more casual mixed doubles event alongside Serena Williams before the draw, defeating doubles specialists Erin Routliffe and Lloyd Glasspool before losing to the pairing of Belinda Bencic and Flavio Cobolli. We will decline to draw too many conclusions about his health from that single day of play, but it sure was conspicuous that they chose Williams to serve first while Alcaraz held off on the velocity for his own serves.
Carlos' possible path to the final in his return to Grand Slam tennis this year 👇 pic.twitter.com/SAPWgqdiaG
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 27, 2026
Not far from Alcaraz on the odds leaderboard is top seed Alexander Zverev, who landed a fairly soft draw on Thursday and has posted career-best results in the past two Grand Slams with his Roland-Garros title and Wimbledon final appearance.
Elena Rybakina will become the new WTA No. 1, unless a few things happen
When the dust settles in New York, any of four different women could be holding the WTA No. 1 ranking.
Odds are decent that it will be the current No. 2, Elena Rybakina. She currently sits 434 points behind No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the tournament's defending champion. However, that trophy also means Sabalenka has 2,000 points to defend this time around, and none to gain. Meanwhile, Rybakina is defending just 240 points after losing in the Round of 16 last year.
That gives Rybakina a simple path to No. 1, though any of Sabalenka, No. 3 Jessica Pegula or No. 4 Coco Gauff could hold the top ranking once the dust clears.
There are basically three scenarios at play here:
Rybakina reaches semifinal : Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.
Rybakina does not reach semifinal, one of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff wins the title : The champion either stays or becomes No. 1.
Rybakina does not reach semifinal, none of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff win the title: Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.
Rybakina has been slowly chasing Sabalenka all year, despite winning only one other title (Stuttgart) since her Australian Open win. It's been a meh season by Sabalenka standards so far, but the shift to hard courts was supposed to be her launching pad. We saw her excel on the same surface months ago when she won the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami, shortly after reaching the Australian Open final.
Sabalenka's results so far: Round of 16 at Toronto, Round of 16 at Cincinnati. Losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova (currently No. 19 in the world) and Sara Bejlek (No. 29). Rarely does the world No. 1 feel this vulnerable going into a Grand Slam in which she's the two-time defending champion.
Elena Rybakina's path to No. 1 is wide open. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS
Rybakina isn't without issues either, as she retired against Świątek in Cincinnati with an apparent Achilles injury, and it's unclear how close she is to full strength entering the tournament.
A (relatively) great opportunity for the American men
The drought now stands at 23 years.
We haven't seen an American man win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick's US Open title in 2003, a span of time in which eight different players have made the year-end top 10 rankings (Roddick, Andre Agassi, James Blake, Mardy Fish, Jack Sock, John Isner, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton).
It's not an inconceivable failure, as winning a Grand Slam requires some combination of generational talent and luck of the draw these days, and neither has really come the U.S.'s way. However, this field has as good a chance as any in recent memory at finally making something happen.
This year's tournament will see six American men seeded, tied with last year for the most since the 1990s:
No. 8 Ben Shelton
No. 9 Taylor Fritz
No. 11 Frances Tiafoe
No. 14 Learner Tien
No. 16 Brandon Nakashima
No. 20 Tommy Paul
Of course, only one member of last year's sextet (the same group with Alex Michelsen instead of Tien) reached the quarterfinals, but this year could be different.
Fritz and Shelton are both legitimate top-10 talents, while Tiafoe, Tien and Nakashima each reached a semifinal or better in...
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