RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The great Jerry Seinfeld once invaded our cerebral cortex, providing the stunning realization that when it comes to pro sports and the cycling through of players on one’s favorite team, we’re all just cheering for laundry.
In college sports, it’s always been slightly different, with so many carrying a deeper attachment as an alum or having close ties to the community of a school. Given the four-year nature of higher education, the player churn was always part of the deal, but in the NIL-era, that’s been cranked up. Players and coaches have redefined the term “commuter school,” as so many pass through campus as if it were a turnstile. As a result, in preparation to bet on the coming football season, one of the ways we can mark these changes is through the betting market.
Last season, you could trace the evolution of Indiana from a team power-rated by the collective betting market as a below-average team (in the 40s out of 100 in THE WINDOW’s estimated market rating system ) before Curt Cignetti’s arrival, to a College Football Playoff team (in the 70s) by the end of 2024, to the 2025 National Champions — finishing last season with a market power rating in the high-90s.
While everyone searches for the “next Indiana,” the Hoosiers’ success is due to Cignetti’s cultural revolution, but also a massive alumni base that he can tap into in Bloomington. Meanwhile, Texas Tech continued a more modest, but similar, trajectory, thanks to a more singular donor funding the Red Raiders’ rise to Big 12 prominence. If your school doesn’t have any of these things, it’s more likely to be a situation where “the more things change, the more they stay the same.”
As we enter the 2026 season, while many of the 138 FBS teams are rated close to their usual standard, the NIL carousel has resulted in a change in market perception for a handful of teams — both up the power ratings, and down.
Luckily, we can use the betting market to note these movers, so we can stay ready on shifting opinions — and we don’t have to get ready.
Rated above their usual level
LSU Tigers
Last season: 60
This season: 83
“Usual” is a loose definition here, as LSU is no stranger to national title contention, but the Brian Kelly “era” dropped the Tigers into also-ran territory. They showed up on this list last year, having been rated in mid-60s at the end of 2024. However, they were expected to be a contender, rated in the 80s, before a catastrophic 2025.
Of course, the Lane Kiffin debacle that hijacked much of last season, the giant NIL budget that coaxed Kiffin to Baton Rouge and the general public’s desire for the Tigers to keep things interesting for those high-energy night games in Death Valley, has sent LSU’s power rating back to where Bayou Bengal supporters think it should be. However, we’ll need to see it to believe it.
USC Trojans
Last season: 70
This season: 78
“Next year is our year” is a tried-and-true motto for college coaches trying to avoid getting fired. Lincoln Riley couldn’t get it done when he brought quarterback Caleb Williams with him from Norman, Oklahoma to L.A., so now it’s time for Part 2 — building it internally.
The market’s buying in to a degree, but USC’s top-rated recruiting class for 2026 (by 247sports ) should make more of an impact in the coming seasons (and will give Riley another mantra), so this bump may be all on the arm of star quarterback Jayden Maiava.
Florida Gators
Last season: 62
This season: 74
The Gators missed out on the Kiffin Sweepstakes, but that doesn’t mean there’s any less hype amidst the start of the Jon Sumrall Era. However, unlike the Tigers’ No. 1-ranked transfer class, Florida’s group of quasi-free agents ranks outside of the top 25, according to 247sports , after having quickly given up on top prospect D.J. Lagway.
Sumrall should have a long leash, and the schedule is easier than the brutal slate they have signed up for in Gainesville in recent seasons, but there should be situations to fade Florida at this rating.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - JULY 22: Head Coach Jon Sumrall of the Florida Gators speaks at SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at Tampa Marriott Water Street on July 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Parker S. Freedman/Getty Images) Parker S. Freedman via Getty Images
Florida Atlantic Owls
Last season: 30
This season: 40
It’s not just the good teams that are worth noting a bump in perception, but after a 4-8 season in Zach Kittley’s first year at Florida Atlantic, the Owls have two things going for them:
1. The highest returning production percentage in an otherwise tumultuous American Conference (given shakeups at Memphis, USF and Tulane)
2. An under-the-radar transfer recruit from Division-II (Livingstone College) in edge-rusher Kenyon Garner, to help bolster the defense
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That won’t necessarily win the conference, but the early-season questions bettors will be asked are:
1. Is that enough to stay within three touchdowns in Week 1 at Florida?
2. Are the Owls interesting home underdogs to Navy in Week 2?
Liberty Flames
Last season: 32
This season: 46
Liberty is an interesting case study in this category. Basically, since their appearance in the Fiesta Bowl three years ago, the Flames have regularly entered the season rated in mid-40s — a good rating for a Conference USA team, only to end it with a poor one, in the low-30s.
In the deep recesses of the college football landscape, recognizing this type of pattern for a team with the same head coach/QB combo — Jamey Chadwell and Ethan Vasko — is where we can find some value in fading overrated programs.
Rated below their usual level
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Last season: 60
This season: 52
The reasons not to like Georgia Tech this season: a non-conference schedule with both Tennessee and Georgia on it, and the hole left by three-year starter Haynes King at quarterback.
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