RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Data from onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant shows average spot order sizes have stayed in what the firm classifies as “big-whale” territory throughout 2026. At the same time, 90-day taker cumulative volume delta, which measures whether buyers or sellers are the aggressors in a trade, has drifted to neutral after a taker-buy-dominant start to the year.
Whales are a colloquial term for large holders of a token, whose buying and selling is watched closely because it tends to lead the wider market rather than follow it.
The firm calls this a quiet absorption and a basing range rather than capitulation or a confirmed breakout.
Ether is where the valuation case is strongest. It trades around $1,900 as of Thursday against a realized price near $2,450, meaning the aggregate cost basis of all coins sits above the current price and holders are underwater on paper. Bitcoin, by contrast, is roughly 17% above its $52,900 realized price, and XRP sits near $1.10 against about $0.75.
Ether's holder base is splitting, however. Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have risen from about 14 million ETH in mid-2025 to record highs near 19.6 million now.
The 100,000-plus cohort fell to roughly 2.6 million ETH in mid-2025 before climbing to about 4.6 million by May 2026, an addition CryptoQuant put at roughly 1.8 million. The 1,000 to 10,000 cohort has gone the other way, peaking near 15.6 million ETH in January 2026 and falling to about 12.9 million since.
Bitcoin whales, excluding exchange and mining-pool addresses, bottomed near 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 and hold about 3.06 million now, buying hardest as price fell below $60,000 in June. That remains roughly 170,000 BTC below the 2025 bull-cycle peak near 3.23 million.
CryptoQuant calls this the last stage of the decline while stating plainly that valuation leaves room for one more leg lower before a floor is confirmed.
Ether below cost basis is the thing to watch. It is the only one of the three where the market has already capitulated on paper, and CryptoQuant noted ETH bottomed in early 2025 at a similar level and a similar distance from its lower band.
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