RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesTALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 20: Head coach Mike Norvell of the Florida State Seminoles takes the field with his team before the start of a game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Florida State football is upon us.
FSU heads into 2026 with plenty looming over the program after two straight losing seasons from the Seminoles. Ashton Daniels arrives as the latest attempt to solve the quarterback position, five new starters have to come together on the offensive line, the defense is banking on a young group taking a Year 2 leap and hanging over all of it is a coaching staff that most everyone outside the building believes is operating without a safety net.
FanDuel currently has Florida State’s over/under set at 5.5 (betting $10 for over would earn you $6.58, under would be $12.40), having dropped from 6.5 in March. For perspective, last season’s over-under was 7.5.
In ESPN’s preseason FPI rankings, the Seminoles were placed at No. 28, ranking their strength of schedule at No. 22. FPI projects FSU’s record as 6.7-5.4, giving it a 71% chance at finishing over 6 wins, a 3.2% chance to win the ACC and a 9.2% chance to make the playoffs.
With fall camp beginning and the countdown to kickoff against New Mexico State a month away, we wanted to dive into seven big questions heading into the season.
Win shares
NoleThruandThru : 5.66
Jordan Silversmith: 5.93
Perry Kostidakis : 5.83
Curt Weiler: 5.81
Frank: 7.46
Matt Minnick : 5.58
Reader average : 6.76
No. 1: What will be the strongest side of the ball for FSU in 2026?
Jordan Silversmith: Like I wrote last week , I think the defense could actually be an interesting unit in the second year of the 3-3-5, and should be the stronger side of the ball. The Noles have talent at all three levels with the Desir twins up front, a quartet of experienced linebackers, and a healthy Ja’Bril Rawls on the back end. There are still massive question marks, mostly revolving around depth and where the explosive plays will come from, but I feel better about them than the offense. As far as position groups go, it is almost impossible to tell because of the number of question marks in each group. I think the skill position players could be interesting, led by Duce Robinson, Ousmane Kromah, and Tre Wisner, but I do not trust the offensive line, quarterback, or play-calling to take advantage. If I had to pick one position group, I would say the linebackers. Chris Jones was one of the better transfer pickups. Omar Graham Jr. and Blake Nichelson are in the same system for a second year. Plus, I think Ernie Sims could make a real difference.
Curt: This is tough because I think the position group I’m highest on could be the wide receivers and I really like FSU’s running back room. But I’m low enough on the quarterback situation that I’m going with the defense. Color me at least mildly a believer in there being a second-year improvement under defensive coordinator Tony White. The Seminoles were able to retain Ja’Bril Rawls and the Desir twins, and added some intriguing transfer pieces at each level of the defense. If this team improves in 2026, I believe it’ll be because the defense takes a notable step forward.
NoleThruandThru : Strongest side of the ball will be the offense this year. The talent at the skill positions should bail Ashton Daniels out enough to be respectable, particularly Duce Robinson’s ability to make contested catches, and I have decent faith in the offensive line to coalesce and turn in some solid performances. Strongest position group this season is easily running back.
Matt M : Can special teams count as a “side of the ball”? As good as the receivers seem, I have zero faith in a Mike Norvell offense consistently scoring, which ultimately the point of playing offense. The defense appears to have nice pieces, but depth concerns me.
Frank D: With the talent on the offensive side, I’m leaning towards the offense, but the depth at many positions is concerning should any of the key starters get injured. As far as position group? Wide Receivers and tight ends. Hopefully the coaches will realize that the tight ends at FSU are also eligible receivers.
Perry : The offense should be the better side, just based on the skill players around Ashton Daniels, though I’m on board with Jordan and Curt and do think the defense is going to benefit from a second year in Tony White’s system. Even with Ashton Daniels’ apparent low ceiling, high-floor hand leading the way, the receivers and running backs will be the driving force of FSU’s offensive success and having an offensive line that actually got to go through spring together will be a big difference.
No. 2: Outside of Duce Robinson, who will be the biggest difference maker for Florida State?
Jordan Silversmith: Similar to what I said in my previous answer, this is one of the main worries I have for the team — a lack of top-end talent. Will anyone pick up double-digit sacks? How about a 1,000-yard rusher? All seem unlikely. The easy answer is Micahi Danzy because of what we saw last year, but he feels more explosive than a week-in, week-out difference-maker. So, again, with no options I feel particularly confident in, I will say Ousmane Kromah on offense and Ashlynd Barker on defense. FSU will almost certainly try to be a run-heavy team, and Kromah, as a physical back, could get much of the short-yardage work while getting double-digit touches a game. On defense, Barker takes over for Earl Little Jr. and broke the rock after summer workouts. He should be all around the ball all the time, and his frame will let him impact the run and passing game.
NoleThruandThru : I’m sincerely hoping it’ll either be Rylan Kennedy, because FSU desperately needs production at edge, or Xavier Chaplin, because consistency at left tackle would be wonderful. Take hope out of the equat...
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