RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump ’s approval rating among white voters without a college degree, a cornerstone of his base, has fallen from 61 percent in February 2025, shortly after he returned to the White House, to 46 percent this month, according to CNN polling data.
The poll marks a major shift among a voting group critical to Trump’s 2024 victory. While former Vice President Kamala Harris won voters of color and white voters with a college degree, Trump’s strong showing among white voters without a degree propelled him past the finish line. He won the group by 34 points, 66 percent to 32 percent, according to CNN exit polling.
But the latest CNN poll suggests he is now underwater with the group, another concerning sign for Republicans ahead of this year's midterm elections , when Democrats are hoping to flip control of the House and Senate.
If the bloc casts ballots for Democrats or stays home because of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration ’s policies, that does not bode well for Republicans’ efforts to retain their majorities in both chambers of Congress. Republicans hope these voters may be put off by Democrats’ brand as the political left remains broadly unpopular with voters.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle wrote in a statement to Newsweek : “No other President in history has accomplished more for hardworking Americans than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
The latest CNN poll found that Trump is 8 points underwater with white voters who do not have a college degree, with 46 percent disapproving of his job performance and 54 percent giving him positive marks. The poll surveyed 1,225 respondents July 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
It’s a continuation of a longer-term trend since Trump returned to office. His approval rating with all groups has slipped amid concerns about the state of the economy, largely centered around the cost of living, as well as the unpopular war with Iran.
In March, Trump was also underwater with these voters, but only by a single point, 50 percent to 49 percent. In January, white voters without a degree still approved of Trump by a net 5 points, with 52 percent giving him positive marks.
His approval was stronger last summer—with 54 percent approving in July 2025.
The numbers are “extremely concerning” for Trump and Republicans, Peter Enns, professor of government at Cornell University and co-founder and chief data scientist at Verasight, told Newsweek.
“This group is not happy with what Trump is focusing on,” he said. “Since February 2025, the percent of whites without a college degree indicating that Trump has had the right priorities has declined drastically—from 59 percent reporting that Trump has had the right priorities versus 41 percent indicating he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems [+18] to just 39 percent saying Trump has had the right priorities with 61 percent indicating he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems [-22].
The economy has become a major sticking point for white voters without a degree, according to the CNN poll, with only 37 percent saying they believe Trump is handling the economy well. On inflation, 31 percent approved.
The Iran war is another issue where Trump is facing dwindling approval from the bloc, with 39 percent approving of his approach to Iran.
On other issues, white voters without a college degree are still more supportive of Trump—55 percent approve of him on immigration and 56 percent said they approved of the way he is handling voting rights and election integrity, according to the poll.
Economic concerns are a major point of tension for the administration. Trump campaigned on tackling affordability and inflation, which rose in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. But inflation has remained high.
Gas prices have also increased amid the Iran war because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a major passageway for the global oil supply. On Thursday, gasoline prices averaged $4.098 per gallon nationwide, up from $4.091 a week ago and $3.847 a month ago, when a temporary ceasefire brought prices down a bit, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).
Tariffs have also contributed to cost concerns. Trump says the tariffs are critical to bringing back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. while also closing the trade deficit and targeting unjust practices from other countries, and that the economic benefit in the long run will outweigh short-term pain. Many economists, however, view tariffs as a tax on American consumers that will ultimately lead to higher prices.
Trump, however, said earlier this month that the U.S. has “the greatest economy we've ever had,” touting $19.2 trillion being invested in the country.
The polling numbers could have key implications for the midterms, Enns said, noting that dissatisfaction with Trump does not necessarily mean all of the voters in the bloc will change their votes for Democrats in November.
“We see very little party-switching across elections, so the largest effect will likely be lower turnout among those who voted for Trump and are unhappy with his job as president and higher turnout among Democrats,” he said.
Trump’s approval rating overall will be a major factor in this year’s midterms, which are usually seen as a referendum on the party of a sitting president, so Republicans will be concerned with how popular Trump is in November.
In 2018, during Trump's first-term midterms, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House and s...
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